January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

[Typeing3]

For what it's worth, this is a pretty strong signal on the weeklies for cold into SWBC/PNW around the end of the month into early February.


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Only 20 days away!

[Typeing3]

00z GFS ensembles:

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00z ECMWF ensembles:

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00z GEM ensembles:

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[Rubus_Leucodermis]

One year ago today. This was just a small burst of snow that fell with the arctic front sweeping in. The big overrunning, transitional event was five days later. By the time it happened, the ground was bare. All you see in the photo sublimed in the dry outflow conditions, despite temperatures being below freezing.

IMG_0904_scaled.jpg

[PortKells]

One year ago today. This was just a small burst of snow that fell with the arctic front sweeping in. The big overrunning, transitional event was five days later. By the time it happened, the ground was bare. All you see in the photo sublimed in the dry outflow conditions, despite temperatures being below freezing.

IMG_0904_scaled.jpg

Just to be a maniac I did a cold plunge that morning or maybe the second morning. The ice was already like 5-10 inches thick, needed to sledge hammer it for 5 minutes to get in. I've never seen a deep freeze that fast and extreme here. Ended up skating on our pond maybe 48 hours in.

The original push of arctic air didn't last longer than 48 hours but that second surge kind of slid into the models and developed into what it became, one of if not the biggest single day snow events to cover the region since at least 1996.

That event is so unexpected and strange, and yet so incredibly epic for almost everyone. When Richmond gets 30 cm you know you're having a good time.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Just shared this on the AF. Seattle weenies should “enjoy” it.

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[PortKells]

This is one of the more frustrating model rides of all time. Just can't get momentum for two straight 00Z - 12Zs and so forth. We appear to have lost all the momentum for the second cold shot that all of the models on the 00Z vigorously showed.

[tyweather]

Yearly snowfall trends

[Catnip]

This is one of the more frustrating model rides of all time. Just can't get momentum for two straight 00Z - 12Zs and so forth. We appear to have lost all the momentum for the second cold shot that all of the models on the 00Z vigorously showed.

[Hawk]

This is one of the more frustrating model rides of all time. Just can't get momentum for two straight 00Z - 12Zs and so forth. We appear to have lost all the momentum for the second cold shot that all of the models on the 00Z vigorously showed.

The LR models are struggling, as they often do. 3-4 days out they are pretty solid though imo

[Typeing3]

One year ago today. This was just a small burst of snow that fell with the arctic front sweeping in. The big overrunning, transitional event was five days later. By the time it happened, the ground was bare. All you see in the photo sublimed in the dry outflow conditions, despite temperatures being below freezing.

IMG_0904_scaled.jpg

Was a very sharp arctic front accompanied by very significant cold air advection, given temps peaked in the morning under gusty NW winds and continually dropped during the day from the onset of the frontal passage with N/NE winds. The initial dark cloud buildup over the mountains was impressive (traditionally a hallmark of some very cold air aloft approaching us from the N/NE) and eventually spilled over and down into the mainland as the front pushed through.

North-central Metro Van including East Van, Burnaby, New West, and West Coquitlam was the bullseye region for the snow during that afternoon. Temps kept falling as skies cleared overnight and winds never calmed down with temps down close to -15c and windchill values near -25c for much of the region by the following morning. High temps also struggled to crack -8c/-9c under full sunshine. A winter day more akin to the prairies with the dry, windy, cold air blast accompanied by extreme wind chills.

[Catnip]

The LR models are struggling, as they often do. 3-4 days out they are pretty solid though imo

We need things to setup favorably and then we need a #patternlock!

[Typeing3]

Models have converged on the backdoor modified arctic air by next weekend which means chilly, dry easterly winds for us. Will be a lot more significant cold further south in Washington and Oregon as is typical with these setups. Farctic outflow for Agassiz and the forum's favourite Annis Road. Low DPs and sunny skies which the moss will hate.

Maps for seven days out... next Saturday morning.

12Z GFS

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12Z ECMWF

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12Z GEM

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[Catnip]

IMG_2979.gif

[wetcoast91]

Models have converged on the backdoor modified arctic air by next weekend which means chilly, dry easterly winds for us. Will be a lot more significant cold further south in Washington and Oregon as is typical with these setups. Farctic outflow for Agassiz and the forum's favourite Annis Road. Low DPs and sunny skies which the moss will hate.

Maps for seven days out... next Saturday morning.

12Z GFS
gfs_z500a_namer_29.png


12Z ECMWF
ec-fast_z500a_namer_8.png


12Z GEM
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Still looks good for a snowless winter.

[Typeing3]

Still looks good for a snowless winter.

That ship sailed long ago. YVR recorded 4cm of snow on Nov 19th.

The record is definitely dubious given most of the region recorded a trace and up to 2cm, however even a trace will save us from breaking any records. Vancouver has never had any calendar years without at least a trace of snow in recorded history.