January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

[wetcoast91]

18Z GFS wasnt too bad. Brings in some continental air before the ridge sits over us.

[AbbyJr]

Flashback to the January 2024 model ride. If only this solution would have verified. Looked like a carbon copy of December 1990. Full on old school arctic blast. It was one of the most top tier winter patterns I've ever seen on the Euro in the realistic range. That polar lobe literally dives down from the NW Territories and drops a massive amount of arctic air over BC and then takes a picture perfect over the water trajectory. No doubt a low would have formed offshore with all that cold being ejected over the water. That would have likely resulted in a snowstorm or a damaging Fraser outflow wind event, depending on where the low tracked. Unfortunately, the pattern that verified had the polar lobe further east and not taking that eye candy over the water trajectory. While I'm overall satisfied with the outcome, there were moments where I actually thought we were in for the most intense arctic outflow event since December 1990. Pulling that off in a strong El Niño would have been epic. But nowadays it usually goes

Modelled 500mb pattern:

ecmwfjan2024.png

Actual pattern:

jan122024verified.gif

[VanCitySouth]

I find it really suspicious that 2022, 23, and 24 are all in the top 10 highest RH years. I genuinely think something is wrong with the new RH sensor

https://x.com/YVR__Weather/status/18768 ... h7NRQ&s=19

[Typeing3]

Extreme cold has always been rare here apart from the 50's and 60's. But I do think there is still a good chance for a colder period with some snow even if we have to wait until February. Perhaps a 2014 style setup? We'll have to see but I'd be surprised if this winter busts entirely.

Plenty of extreme cold waves in the past, before the 1950s and 1960s too.

Late January/early February 1893 was probably the most anomalous cold snap in recorded history. Possibly on par with the warm season equivalent, in late June 2021.

January 31st, 1893:



February 2nd, 1893:

[Catnip]

Off topic but really bad situation unfolding in Cali with wildfires.

[SouthSardiswx]

Off topic but really bad situation unfolding in Cali with wildfires.

Yup Cnuts been following some live streams on YT prayer's to the folks affected.

[PortKells]

Flashback to the January 2024 model ride. If only this solution would have verified. Looked like a carbon copy of December 1990. Full on old school arctic blast. It was one of the most top tier winter patterns I've ever seen on the Euro in the realistic range. That polar lobe literally dives down from the NW Territories and drops a massive amount of arctic air over BC and then takes a picture perfect over the water trajectory. No doubt a low would have formed offshore with all that cold being ejected over the water. That would have likely resulted in a snowstorm or a damaging Fraser outflow wind event, depending on where the low tracked. Unfortunately, the pattern that verified had the polar lobe further east and not taking that eye candy over the water trajectory. While I'm overall satisfied with the outcome, there were moments where I actually thought we were in for the most intense arctic outflow event since December 1990. Pulling that off in a strong El Niño would have been epic. But nowadays it usually goes

Modelled 500mb pattern:

ecmwfjan2024.png


Actual pattern:

jan122024verified.gif

Kinda crazy we got what we got with how much the models pulled back. We really just got brushed by the airmass but it was so dense that we got those insane -15 for two nights. Then the snow event that followed was one of the most epic in recent metro Van history, but the 500 mb pattern I remember being somewhat pedestrian looking.

[PortKells]

I feel sad but at the same time, these kinds of insane events have been warned about for years. I know these are some of the people that fly their private jets around the world while spouting off their self righteous political nonsense in the other side of their mouth (Leo Dicaprio comes to mind)...but I don't wish them or their loved ones suffering.

Bottom line; It's January. You can't tell me that this was normal even 30 years ago. Now there are wildfires all over the place at all times of the year. There were wildfires in New York City in Novemeber! Now this in January. I remember there was a deadly one in Colorado in December not long ago, and something in Tennessee as well that killed a bunch. Warm this local climate another degree and that'll be happening here.

Hopefully the death and destrucion is limited but I don't see how that's possible in this swift and extreme kind of event.

[AbbyJr]

Kinda crazy we got what we got with how much the models pulled back. We really just got brushed by the airmass but it was so dense that we got those insane -15 for two nights. Then the snow event that followed was one of the most epic in recent metro Van history, but the 500 mb pattern I remember being somewhat pedestrian looking.

No doubt and that arctic blast would have been even colder and prolonged had the earlier eye candy Euro and GFS runs verified.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

00Z Euro looks cold

ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-t850-7288000.png

and dry

ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera_cm-7590400.png

[SouthSardiswx]

Is Trump even sane with that comment.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Is Trump even sane with that comment.

I think there's a separate thread for politics.

[SouthSardiswx]

I think there's a separate thread for politics.

More interesting than the models Rubes.

[Typeing3]

I feel sad but at the same time, these kinds of insane events have been warned about for years. I know these are some of the people that fly their private jets around the world while spouting off their self righteous political nonsense in the other side of their mouth (Leo Dicaprio comes to mind)...but I don't wish them or their loved ones suffering.

Bottom line; It's January. You can't tell me that this was normal even 30 years ago. Now there are wildfires all over the place at all times of the year. There were wildfires in New York City in Novemeber! Now this in January. I remember there was a deadly one in Colorado in December not long ago, and something in Tennessee as well that killed a bunch. Warm this local climate another degree and that'll be happening here.

Hopefully the death and destrucion is limited but I don't see how that's possible in this swift and extreme kind of event.

Regarding the Santa Ana winds in California, historically they have been noted to be most impactful during the fall period (i.e. September though December), and have occured at this time of year before as well.

[Catnip]

The low cloud/fog/drizzle is back this morning!!!!



/s