January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

[Storm]

Hey that's that thing that sucks!

50/50 chance things can go eather way.

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[Rubus_Leucodermis]

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[Typeing3]

Oh… look what’s back…



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John was right, we're following up the year without summer with the year without winter!

[Catnip]

And now the EPS is coming back.



Lots to figure out still.

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[PortKells]

The EPS reversed course.

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[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Honestly, the only time I can recall off the top of my head where the models came up with a cold solution and then stuck with it until it verified was December 2008. Every other time, the signals come and go for a while until it locks in. (And quite often, it just vanishes without ever locking in.) Same old, same old.

[Catnip]

A clear and frosty 0.0c currently.

[Typeing3]

A clear and frosty 0.0c currently.

Still foggy here.

2c.

[AbbyJr]

Honestly, the only time I can recall off the top of my head where the models came up with a cold solution and then stuck with it until it verified was December 2008. Every other time, the signals come and go for a while until it locks in. (And quite often, it just vanishes without ever locking in.) Same old, same old.

Back in 2008, I just followed the official forecasts because I didn't understand weather models yet. But somebody on here mentioned that there was a flip flop in December 2008. Apparently the models locked on to the cold pattern very early but then it all started falling apart leading up to the event. However, a miracle happened and the models suddenly went back to the initial cold solutions. Seems like a stressful but yet a common theme.

[AbbyJr]

Significant improvements on the 00Z EPS tonight from the 12Z run earlier today.

00Z:

00Zecmwf-ensemble-CYXX-indiv_tmp-6208000.png

12Z:

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Run-to-Run change:

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[PortKells]

You gotta ride it until the wheels fall off. It's the only way!

[PortKells]

John was right, we're following up the year without summer with the year without winter!

Forgot it was 1817

[Catnip]

You gotta ride it until the wheels fall off. It's the only way!

You know it!

[SouthSardiswx]

Back in 2008, I just followed the official forecasts because I didn't understand weather models yet. But somebody on here mentioned that there was a flip flop in December 2008. Apparently the models locked on to the cold pattern very early but then it all started falling apart leading up to the event. However, a miracle happened and the models suddenly went back to the initial cold solutions. Seems like a stressful but yet a common theme.

Yes true Jr. Man, although l didn't join the old forum until Jan/09. I followed the models but probably had as much knowledge as a bean bag. l would mostly listen to Mark Madryga. I don't remember the models backing off but l remember around go time December 15th or so how excited l was when Mark mentioned an Arctic fart was on the way and how exciting it was with Christmas approaching it made it very seasonal with the cold and eventually snow l was living in Maple Ridge at the time.

[Monty]

-0.4C. First freeze of 2025.