January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

[Catnip]

The Extended GEFS and Euro Weeklies were showing us turning cooler/colder around the 3rd week of Jan way back during the 2nd week of December. I was posting about it on Dec 12/13.

Will be interesting to see if it actually pans out. A good test for the longer range ensembles.

[PortKells]

The Extended GEFS and Euro Weeklies were showing us turning cooler/colder around the 3rd week of Jan way back during the 2nd week of December. I was posting about it on Dec 12/13.

Will be interesting to see if it actually pans out. A good test for the longer range ensembles.

Here’s todays. I think this is overwhelming likely to be something good, at least much improved from early winter.

864F5ECF-75EC-4495-9BDD-412525D94532.gif

[wetcoast91]

Here’s todays. I think this is overwhelming likely to be something good, at least much improved from early winter.

864F5ECF-75EC-4495-9BDD-412525D94532.gif

Biggest thing is we are looking at an eventual dry period with the ridge and pacific shutdown.

[Typeing3]

12z GFS ensembles:

ens_image - 2025-01-04.png

12z ECMWF ensembles:

ens_image - 2025-01-04T.png

12z GEM ensembles:[/b]

ens_image - 2025-01-04T1.png

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[Catnip]

00Z Euro

[AbbyJr]

The 00Z Euro looks good in the clown range. Lot's of high latitude blocking and a SE ridge.

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom-7331200.png

ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-t2m_c_anom-7331200.png

[John]

The 00Z Euro looks good in the clown range. Lot's of high latitude blocking and a SE ridge.


ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom-7331200.png

ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-t2m_c_anom-7331200.png

How strong will the outflow wind be??

[SouthSardiswx]

How strong will the outflow wind be??

John it's to early ask, afew day's out, "Nappy New Year"!

[SouthSardiswx]

The 00Z Euro looks good in the clown range. Lot's of high latitude blocking and a SE ridge.


ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom-7331200.png

ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-t2m_c_anom-7331200.png

I'm still skeptical Jr. Man give it another 7 to 10 day's a long ways to go.
Don't forget your December stats.

[AbbyJr]

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-7331200.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-wcan-t2m_c_anom-7331200.png

[PortKells]

Biggest turn in our favour this winter by far.

[SouthSardiswx]

Perhaps Kells looks good on paper at this point give it 7 to 10 day's l'm not holding my breath. we've been down this rabbit hole year after year.

[PortKells]

Perhaps Kells looks good on paper at this point give it 7 to 10 day's l'm not holding my breath. we've been down this rabbit hole year after year.

But we’ve hit gold 3 years in a row.

[SouthSardiswx]

But we’ve hit gold 3 years in a row.

True but it's the lead up the models show this historic blast of Arctic fart and then back off the last week seems to be the normal. I'll take something historic as a starting point cause in the end we are left in a decent spot.

[PortKells]

True but it's the lead up the models show this historic blast of Arctic fart and then back off the last week seems to be the normal. I'll take something historic as a starting point cause in the end we are left in a decent spot.

True…but last year was borderline historical! Dream big. And then settle for fun.