January 2025 Forecasts And Discussions

[SouthSardiswx]

Wtf?



F79A9FCD-E0B0-4576-B2DB-C764FA4C3228.png

What a monumental low classic dump of snow followed by major pineapples. Ha move on it's an A I illusion.

[SouthSardiswx]

Quite the COF pattern being shown in the longer range on the 00z Gfs.

COF?

[Catnip]

COF?

Cold Onshore Flow

[SouthSardiswx]

Cold Onshore Flow

Gotcha, AF is already bickering.

[Typeing3]

All three main ensemble suites (GFS/Euro/CMC) show a favourable trend with an amplifying NPAC ridge merging with a -NAO forming a ridge bridge. If the ensembles are correct, we should see better trends on the deterministic runs once the pacific energy begins to fade. As of now, the deterministic models continue to be influenced by the Aleutian low, which is wiped out in the most recent clown range ensemble runs. To be honest, I’m starting to think there is a legit chance we might be able to score in the last week of January. Time will tell.

It's possible, however recent climo suggests it's not an ideal timeframe for any noteworthy winter weather.

Our region is long past overdue for a late January cold snap as we've gone over a quarter century without an arctic blast in the timeframe where our most notable arctic blasts have historically occurred.

Last time YVR recorded a subfreezing high temp in late Jan was 1997, and a temp below -10c in late Jan was last recorded in 1996.

[Typeing3]

Quite the COF pattern being shown in the longer range on the 00z Gfs.

Late January 2008 or 2002 vibes.

[AbbyJr]

The 00Z Ensembles look good. So far the CMC is the outlier as it delays the retrogression. I love how the EPS improved significantly.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-7244800.png

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cmc-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-7223200.png

[AbbyJr]

It's possible, however recent climo suggests it's not an ideal timeframe for any noteworthy winter weather.

Our region is long past overdue for a late January cold snap as we've gone over a quarter century without an arctic blast in the timeframe where our most notable arctic blasts have historically occurred.

Last time YVR recorded a subfreezing high temp in late Jan was 1997, and a temp below -10c in late Jan was last recorded in 1996.

In that case the models will likely delay the pattern change. The cold snap will come in the first week of February.

[PortKells]

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-1735948800-1737072000-1737244800-10.gif

[Roberts Creeker]

If you have clear skies the aurora is visible, it's about midnight now. I have cloud

[VanCitySouth]

In that case the models will likely delay the pattern change. The cold snap will come in the first week of February.

#BEGINNINGOFFEB @CATNIP

[PortKells]

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[Rubus_Leucodermis]

If you have clear skies the aurora is visible, it's about midnight now. I have cloud

Clouded out. Again. At least I got to see a spectacular display last May and a decent one last October.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Gotcha, AF is already bickering.

They shouldn’t. It often brings snow chances. Seldom as epic as arctic outflow + overrunning setups, but still, snow is snow. Beats the pants off the BSF they continually whine about when it comes to snow chances.

[PortKells]

The Canadian ensembles improved significantly.

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