December 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Anybody seeing some winds yet? Pretty quiet in The Wack at the moment....

Merry Christmas to all!

No wind worth noting in Kensington-Cedar Cottage.

[PortKells]

Most of us take no stock in long-range forecasting unless it's showing an continuation of the Aleutian Low and +PNA ridge.

Odds are favorable for a colder than normal February due to the very weak -ENSO state but the later than usual plunge could translate into a colder spring instead.

Analogues are 100% useless and should forever stop being used.

The weeklies are decent for late January still but that has been pushed back several times already.

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-namer-t850_anom-7763200.png

[Typeing3]

Watching this low tomorrow morning approaching from the SW. Strong winds for southern Vancouver Island and across the Georgia Strait. Heavy rain for lower elevations and another fresh round of heavy snow for the alpine above 1,000m.

hrdps_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_fh12-26.gif

[Typeing3]

More of a zonal component to this Aleutian Low pattern currently which is good news for snowpack building above 1,000m. The earlier indications of a miler, SWly flow like in late December 1980 which would have resulted in 2,000-3,000m snow levels has luckily been avoided.

gfs_z500a_npac_1.png

gfs_uv250_npac_1.png

[Bonovox]

I’m okay with this winter being a dud. Almost expecting it to be so at this point.


Merry Christmas!

[AbbyJr]

Merry Christmas everyone!

[PortKells]

I'm so glad you and your family are okay. That looks way too close for comfort.

To clarify, while I do enjoy extreme weather, I would never ever want anyone to suffer. During the November 2021 floods, I was devastated for those who were trapped in their cars due to the landslides and those who lost everything. With the heat dome earlier that year, I was deeply saddened to hear about all the fatalities. It's a very challenging inner battle to enjoy various weather events that on the one hand, are exciting for an enthusiast but on the other hand, result in devastation to others. But keep in mind, even snowstorms can cause tragedies. People are far more likely to end up in serious vehicle accidents due to the snow. If it's heavy and wet, roofs can cave in. Yet, I know both you and I and most if not all of us on this forum cheer on snowstorms. Nobody wants people to suffer. Rather, it's tracking the models, breaking records, and storm chasing that we enjoy.

It's been a weird year...up and down health wise, Dad passed in November, and other stuff keeping life off balance. The weirdest things will set me off. I'm looking to get back into meditation again next year, I remember being so much more resilient when I was practicing before.

To your point about snowstorms, I agree and disagree. Snowstorms seem to be one where most people actually get scared of being out, and that's not a bad thing. We have warming centres for the homeless, everyone has heat. Vehicle accidents are mostly human error snow or not, whereas a tree falling on you is just bad luck and power outages cause chaos for rural settings like this one. But I'll agree that arctic airmasses can suck for a lot of people so yeah.

But on the bigger point I know you're not cheering on people getting hurt or having their stuff damaged, it's just a matter of wording that I could easily not care about if I was in the right state of mind. I never used to hate windstorms until I moved on to this farm and into an RV that's flimsy and surrounded by dead (and apparently live) trees that could make us a distant memory in a split second! It's all a matter of perspective.

Merry Christmas to you, and hopefully a healing time for many.

[PortKells]

More of a zonal component to this Aleutian Low pattern currently which is good news for snowpack building above 1,000m. The earlier indications of a miler, SWly flow like in late December 1980 which would have resulted in 2,000-3,000m snow levels has luckily been avoided.
gfs_z500a_npac_1.png
gfs_uv250_npac_1.png

Looks good for now. I'm a little concerned about where tempereatures go in about a week. The Euro ensembles take a big spike. But that could mellow out.

[AbbyJr]

I’m okay with this winter being a dud. Almost expecting it to be so at this point.


Merry Christmas!

We are due for a dud given the past three winters have performed nicely in the cold and snow department. That said, I still there is potential for the second half of January or the first week of February. Tough to say for sure at this point but model trends can flip quickly.

[SouthSardiswx]

We are due for a dud given the past three winters have performed nicely in the cold and snow department. That said, I still there is potential for the second half of January or the first week of February. Tough to say for sure at this point but model trends can flip quickly.

Patterns or mechanisms to pull down the cold air has declined over the past decades. Face facts as Kells says our warming climate has made a huge impact.

[SouthSardiswx]

The weeklies are decent for late January still but that has been pushed back several times already.

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-namer-t850_anom-7763200.png

That looks weak at best and so late in the season doesn't bode well slush fest perhaps.

[AbbyJr]

It's been a weird year...up and down health wise, Dad passed in November, and other stuff keeping life off balance. The weirdest things will set me off. I'm looking to get back into meditation again next year, I remember being so much more resilient when I was practicing before.

To your point about snowstorms, I agree and disagree. Snowstorms seem to be one where most people actually get scared of being out, and that's not a bad thing. We have warming centres for the homeless, everyone has heat. Vehicle accidents are mostly human error snow or not, whereas a tree falling on you is just bad luck and power outages cause chaos for rural settings like this one. But I'll agree that arctic airmasses can suck for a lot of people so yeah.

But on the bigger point I know you're not cheering on people getting hurt or having their stuff damaged, it's just a matter of wording that I could easily not care about if I was in the right state of mind. I never used to hate windstorms until I moved on to this farm and into an RV that's flimsy and surrounded by dead (and apparently live) trees that could make us a distant memory in a split second! It's all a matter of perspective.

Merry Christmas to you, and hopefully a healing time for many.

Merry Christmas to you as well.

I'm so sorry to hear about your dad passing.

[SouthSardiswx]

What windstorm dead calm in the central valley. maybe the southwesterlies will pick up overnight or tomorrow.

[SouthSardiswx]

It's going to be strange not having a WPro sighting this winter. but we still have Jr. Man Wpro 2.0 to keep the hope alive this winter.

[SouthSardiswx]

What windstorm dead calm in the central valley. maybe the southwesterlies will pick up overnight or tomorrow.

Merry Christmas to all my Chilliwack neighbors B.C.'s best trucker, Johnny, Slyts and those in the central valley.