December 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

[Leighbugs]

I've had so much going on in my life the past few years that I feel barely conscious of the weather at times so maybe I'm wrong....

But is this fall/winter so far feeling like a carbon copy of last year?All I recall with certainty is there was no cold, all the way through Christmas. And not just here, the interior didn't even have snow. I went to Kamloops last Christmas and it was a green one. It was raining at Sun Peaks when we went!

Then last January we finally had an arctic outbreak and we had our big dump of snow. This is the cold that apparently killed off all the fruit trees in the interior (I am personally confused how that happens with one mediocre cold snap but I'm no farmer. )

And that was basically...it. The rest of the season was just regular rain and average temps.

And now this year is so far following the same trajectory? Or am I wrong? I'm sure I've missed details but overall I am feeling like we copy/pasted last year onto this year and it's weird.

[Michael1]

I've had so much going on in my life the past few years that I feel barely conscious of the weather at times so maybe I'm wrong....

But is this fall/winter so far feeling like a carbon copy of last year?All I recall with certainty is there was no cold, all the way through Christmas. And not just here, the interior didn't even have snow. I went to Kamloops last Christmas and it was a green one. It was raining at Sun Peaks when we went!

Then last January we finally had an arctic outbreak and we had our big dump of snow. This is the cold that apparently killed off all the fruit trees in the interior (I am personally confused how that happens with one mediocre cold snap but I'm no farmer. )

And that was basically...it. The rest of the season was just regular rain and average temps.

And now this year is so far following the same trajectory? Or am I wrong? I'm sure I've missed details but overall I am feeling like we copy/pasted last year onto this year and it's weird.

Nope, you're not wrong, especially temperature wise. Where I am, we've had more rain and wind than last year, but the rest is the same. We didn't get too many frosty mornings before Christmas last year and only 2, this year.

[Antares]

-9.9C and flurrying here.

Got a big snowstorm yesterday, first big one of the winter. ~25cm but hard to tell with the wind.

I hope y'all are doing well and get some wintry weather soon.

[PortKells]

I've had so much going on in my life the past few years that I feel barely conscious of the weather at times so maybe I'm wrong....

But is this fall/winter so far feeling like a carbon copy of last year?All I recall with certainty is there was no cold, all the way through Christmas. And not just here, the interior didn't even have snow. I went to Kamloops last Christmas and it was a green one. It was raining at Sun Peaks when we went!

Then last January we finally had an arctic outbreak and we had our big dump of snow. This is the cold that apparently killed off all the fruit trees in the interior (I am personally confused how that happens with one mediocre cold snap but I'm no farmer. )

And that was basically...it. The rest of the season was just regular rain and average temps.

And now this year is so far following the same trajectory? Or am I wrong? I'm sure I've missed details but overall I am feeling like we copy/pasted last year onto this year and it's weird.

Very accurate except I'd say temperatures were far above average for the most part. To get interior snow you don't even really need average temperatures, just slightly above average can do. But we didn't even have that until mid January. This year hasn't been as mild believe it or not.

[wetcoast91]

I think multi-week or month long arctic blasts are a thing of the past.

Fortunately we should see a decent amount of higher alpine snows the next 2 weeks. Local mountains should still see periodic snows as well, but they may not gain much due to marginal temps at 1200m.

[Hawk]

The downside to living in the 50's and 60's is that we wouldn't have the advanced computer weather models and this forum wouldn't exist.

I liked the 80s..when even the same forecast would bust often..and back then many times it erred on the side of SNOW
Now..we pretty much know many days ahead..up to 10 or more..often times sad, rainy and bommy results. Boo.

[PortKells]

I think multi-week or month long arctic blasts are a thing of the past.

You're wrong...we're just cursed. In fact, the whole earth seems to be cursed and terribly unlucky. What else could explain it?

[Hawk]

You're wrong...we're just cursed. In fact, the whole earth seems to be cursed and terribly unlucky. What else could explain it?

Global Warming?

[wetcoast91]

You're wrong...we're just cursed. In fact, the whole earth seems to be cursed and terribly unlucky. What else could explain it?

Hear me out...what it we actually celebrate greenhouse gases and pump more into the atmopshere? That will fix it!

[Typeing3]

12z GFS ensembles:

ens_image - 2024-12-22.png

12z ECMWF ensembles:

ens_image - 2024-12-22T.png

12z GEM ensembles:

ens_image - 2024-12-22T1.png

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20241222222418-f2d55cb2f7d25ede82061ea59927f31c10f27558.png

[Roberts Creeker]

Has the threat of a wind storm gone? We didn't have a warning but there was a Met Note for 23/24 and it's gone. It's pretty windy right now though.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Goofus

gfs-deterministic-or_wa-instant_ptype-6078400.png

[SouthSardiswx]

Goofus

gfs-deterministic-or_wa-instant_ptype-6078400.png

Again a winter of ya right. this forum has become a cess pool of wild hopes and bashing l just lurk now no sense in posting too much attacking and depressing posts even the joking around isn't funny anymore.

[Michael1]

With the SOI remaining in La Nina territory and the Central, equatorial pacific now exhibiting La Nina SSTs, we might (might) have some minor ENSO influence on our weather, mid January. Another piece of the puzzle is the MJO. All these are dance partners in a complex choreography in an increasingly unpredictable climate

mjo_rmm.daily.20241220.png

ssta.daily.current.png

soi30.png

[PortKells]

With the SOI remaining in La Nina territory and the Central, equatorial pacific now exhibiting La Nina SSTs, we might (might) have some minor ENSO influence on our weather, mid January. Another piece of the puzzle is the MJO. All these are dance partners in a complex choreography in an increasingly unpredictable climate
mjo_rmm.daily.20241220.pngssta.daily.current.pngsoi30.png

I think January is on the table but it's just as likely to be a Jan 24 2021 nothingburger. I remember hyping up that event and we barely got a dusting. We ended up getting a blast in February but not a direct hit. I wouldn't be surprised if this winter was really no better than that one. However, we're actually on a good run of winters here so I'm definitely still going to watch closely and see if something better pops up.