December 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

[SouthSardiswx]

Jr. Man don't forget your November stats please It's currently 5c under mostly clear skies @ Santas home for Christmas the pond in south Sardis.

[Michael1]

12Z GFS brings back ridging in the LR. This winter is mirroring 2015-16 so far.

Except 2015-16 was an el nino year!

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Inversion layer lingering over Burrard Inlet and surrounding lowlands.

P1110223_scaled.jpg

[wetcoast91]

Except 2015-16 was an el nino year!

EPS at least shows a dynamic pattern setting up. The GFS is really boring.

[Typeing3]

Inversion layer lingering over Burrard Inlet and surrounding lowlands.

P1110223_scaled.jpg

From the current temp observations, looks like it's still persisting in PoCo, Pitt Meadows, Port Kells and Fort Langley as well.

[Typeing3]

12Z GFS brings back ridging in the LR. This winter is mirroring 2015-16 so far.

Seems more like 2013-14 or 2004-05 so far.

[AbbyJr]

EPS at least shows a dynamic pattern setting up. The GFS is really boring.

Thankfully, the EPS is far more reliable than the GFS.

[AbbyJr]

Seems more like 2013-14 or 2004-05 so far.

Minus the backdoor arctic blast in the first week of December 2013.

[Michael1]

So all the prognostications earlier this fall meant nothing. The ENSO, PDO and SSTs don't affect our weather the way it was forecast? So if those atmospheric/ oceanographic mechanisms do not affect our weather, why do we think analogs are any better a predictor? It seems more like the computer models are no better than clever coin flips.

[Typeing3]

So all the prognostications earlier this fall meant nothing. The ENSO, PDO and SSTs don't affect our weather the way it was forecast? So if those atmospheric/ oceanographic mechanisms do not affect our weather, why do we think analogs are any better a predictor? It seems more like the computer models are no better than clever coin flips.

2004-05 and 2013-14 were among the analogues for this winter, IIRC. Both cool neutrals/weak Nina's.

Edit: 2005-06, not 2004-05.

[Typeing3]

Minus the backdoor arctic blast in the first week of December 2013.

Still plenty of time for a backdoor arctic blast to occur.

[Typeing3]

Currently 3c and clear in east Coquitlam.

First time seeing the sky since Sunday, as the fog has (temporarily?) lifted.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Currently 3c and clear in east Coquitlam.

First time seeing the sky since Sunday, as the fog has (temporarily?) lifted.

It was a lovely blue sky afternoon here in the big city. Now down to 2.6˚C. EC is going for a low of -2˚C last time I checked. Would be the coldest morning of the season so far.

[Weather101]

[Typeing3]