October 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

[SouthSardiswx]

Rare cumulopumpkin cloud. It's currently 8c @ the pond in south Sardis on this all Hallows night the high today was 11c.

FB_IMG_1730429220986.jpg

[Roberts Creeker]

Rare cumulopumpkin cloud. It's currently 8c @ the pond in south Sardis on this all Hallows night the high today was 11c. FB_IMG_1730429220986.jpg

That's great! A chilly 6.7c in Roberts Creek.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Hopefully we get precipitation overperformance once we get cold and snowy in December-March

Well, December through February, at least.

[Typeing3]

00z GFS ensembles:

ens_image.png

00z ECMWF ensembles:

ens_image (1).png

00z GEM ensembles:

ens_image (2).png

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20241101134353-63ac781e6cb3d867d3093e64ce86babab4907ae4.png

[Typeing3]

Next 15-16 days total precip on the ensembles


00z GEFS (GFS ensembles)

gfs-ens_apcpn_wus_64.png

00z EPS (ECMWF ensembles)

eps_apcpn_wus_60.png

00z GEPS (GEM ensembles)

gem-ens_apcpn_wus_64.png

[Hawk]

00z GFS ensembles:
ens_image.png
00z ECMWF ensembles:
ens_image (1).png
00z GEM ensembles:
ens_image (2).png




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20241101134406-679f38fc9aa6b74d403b8e3353d4a6c7177215ef.png
20241101134353-63ac781e6cb3d867d3093e64ce86babab4907ae4.png

We dont see this too often in Novembers lately iirc..one bump for 3 days...the rest at or below seasonal the entire run
like that is 1-2c below normal almost everyday! Thats flirting with snow at times..isn't it?

[Typeing3]

We dont see this too often in Novembers lately iirc..one bump for 3 days...the rest at or below seasonal the entire run
like that is 1-2c below normal almost everyday! Thats flirting with snow at times..isn't it?

We typically want to see 850mb temps below -5c/-6c for a chance of snow down to the lower levels without a preceding cold/arctic airmass.

850mb temps below 0c means snow for the local mountains though!

[Typeing3]

Let’s get 120mm of rain and then drop to -5 a week later

9769F4F7-5C8C-43C1-8213-17B117399186.png

Just coming back to this post. It appears the extreme rainfall solution did verify.