October 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

[Hawk]

Thanks for all the rain stats

[tyweather]

Atmospheric river event recap. 3-day precipitation totals on the South Coast from Friday through Sunday are shown above, with much of the region in the heavy to extreme range of 100-330mm. The wettest locations were Jordan River with 320mm and the lower reaches of the North Shore basins where Coquitlam Dam saw 332mm and Alouette Dam 227mm. Hourly rainfall rates reached upwards of 15-20 mm/hour on Saturday. The greatest impacts on the South Coast were not surprisingly right against the North Shore mountains in North Vancouver and Coquitlam, where local flooding and mudslides occurred. But other communities, such as Burnaby, also experienced flooding as well as parts of western Vancouver Island near Bamfield. Impressively, some locations received more rainfall than during the mid-November event of 2021! However, that storm was more impactful for several reasons. It had a stronger inland penetration into the eastern Fraser Valley and Coquihalla (Hope saw close to 300mm, whereas this past weekend saw 90-130mm). There was also a large mountain snowpack present before the Nov 2021 event, contributing over 100mm of snowmelt on top of the rainfall.

[SouthSardiswx]

My final storm total is 140.7 mm.

I definitely got more than that in 2021, and that was in Abbotsford, so presumably even more than that for Mission. Totally different beast for the valley.

Storm total for the official overflowing pond in south Sardis
Oct 18th 22.1mm
Oct 19th 89.1mm
Oct 20th 26.1mm
Total: 137.6mm
I heard there was a land slide in the eastern Chilliwack hillside. I don't have the details perhaps one our members out that way will have more information l heard it knocked out power for some residents.
Here we go forum friends our hopefully fall/winter fun has begun let's get the party started.

[wetcoast91]

Looks like BAM is going for above average temps come mid-November.

This "could" bode well for the hammer drop come December.

Looks like a classic Ridgevember pattern. Fog and +20C on the mountains.

[Catnip]

Looks like a classic Ridgevember pattern. Fog and +20C on the mountains.

[Catnip]

Just for fun...

I've noticed that the FS is spitting out a few fairly cold extremes for Jan.

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cfs_t2m_anom_northamerica_202501_w3.png

[Hawk]

Lots of signs are there. Wet and seasonal November and maybe then a long and cold winter starting in december. By the end of December we'll have a good handle on if we're going to get Frozen and snowed in all winter

[Catnip]

Attention Neetz....

Here is the latest Winter Outlook:

off02_temp.jpg

[Hawk]

Last winters powerful snowstorm during an EN..hopefully the cold anomalies are taking over for us this year..for once..I hope so

[Bc_trucker]

Storm total for the official overflowing pond in south Sardis
Oct 18th 22.1mm
Oct 19th 89.1mm
Oct 20th 26.1mm
Total: 137.6mm
I heard there was a land slide in the eastern Chilliwack hillside. I don't have the details perhaps one our members out that way will have more information l heard it knocked out power for some residents.
Here we go forum friends our hopefully fall/winter fun has begun let's get the party started.

I haven't heard of a landslide.... could be a minor one. Our East-Chilliwack friend moved east......he's in Alberta now, just got a picture with his first snowfall.

[SouthSardiswx]

I haven't heard of a landslide.... could be a minor one. Our East-Chilliwack friend moved east......he's in Alberta now, just got a picture with his first snowfall.

Oh wow did he post it here or he keeps in touch with you? wow l missed it if he said he was moving. Well we still have BC's best truck driver out in eastern Chilliwack, East Whack Man had a nice high perch for sure.

[SouthSardiswx]

Attention Neetz....

Here is the latest Winter Outlook:


off02_temp.jpg

And the pineapple fight vs has begun. Where's Monty haven't seen him for months?

[Canada Goose]

More data:

291.4 mm Coquitlam Burke Mountain
279.3 mm Coquitlam David Avenue Pump Station
232.8 mm Burnaby Mountain
231.1 mm Coquitlam Cottonwood Park
228.3 mm Coquitam Ranch Park
220.4 mm Coquitlam Poirier Community Centre
218.9 mm West Vancouver
212.6 mm Maple Ridge Malcolm UBC Knapp Research Forest
209.0 mm Port Mellon
209.0 mm Burnaby Kensington Arena
202.4 mm Sheringham Point
200.9 mm Burnaby Kerr Wood Leidal

199.6 mm Maple Ridge 256 St
188.3 mm Vancouver Harbour
187.1 mm Surrey Arts Centre
180.2 mm Pitt Meadows
179.8 mm Maple Ridge Town Centre
177.0 mm Burnaby South
174.8 mm Surrey Kwantlen Park
172.4 mm Squamish Airport
165.9 mm Surrey Chantrell Creek Elementary
165.5 mm Surrey Old Municipal Hall
160.9 mm Delta Burns Bog
160.5 mm Estevan Point
159.8 mm Burnaby Edmonds Community Centre
159.3 mm Surrey 68th Ave/176th St
154.7 mm Langley Municipal
154.6 mm Langley Yorkson
143.6 mm Langley High Point
137.8 mm Agassiz
137.3 mm Langley Kinsmen Centre
130.8 mm White Rock Semiahmoo Fish & Game Club
130.4 mm Vancouver Sea Island
130.1 mm Vancouver YVR
128.8 mm Abbotsford YXX
125.0 mm White Rock
123.2 mm Howe Sound Pam Rocks
121.0 mm Surrey Port Kells
121.0 mm White Rock STP
107.4 mm North Cowichan
105.4 mm Cultus Lake
104.2 mm Port Alberni

[VanCitySouth]

I just want to remind everyone that EC's initial rainfall warning was for 40-70mm except maybe 100 along the North Shore.

They undershot by a TRIPLE. In the face of all the models pointing against their forecast.

[PortKells]

I just want to remind everyone that EC's initial rainfall warning was for 40-70mm except maybe 100 along the North Shore.

They undershot by a TRIPLE. In the face of all the models pointing against their forecast.

It happened in the heat dome, it happened in the Nov 21 floods, and it'll continue to happen so long as their philosophy seems to be not to "scare people" despite all evidence to the contrary.