October 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

[Typeing3]

Downpour out there once again. Cold front must be passing through, which means the end is near!

[Typeing3]

Reports of a mudslide that took out a home in northeast Coquitlam (Quarry Road).

Source # 1: https://twitter.com/jwhittalClimate/sta ... 3504876730

Source # 2: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british- ... -1.7357444

Homeowner reported missing amid mudslide in Coquitlam, B.C.
Coquitlam River under flood warning from provincial forecast centre amid torrential downpours

Rescuers in Coquitlam, B.C., are searching for a missing homeowner in the Mount Burke area after they say torrential rain triggered a mudslide and washed away one residence.

The slide came down around noon PT on Saturday, striking a home in the 4200-block of Quarry Road and sending it down the mountainside, Coquitlam Fire and Rescue Chief Scott Young told CBC News.

When his team arrived, Young says they found the road turned into a muddy river and high-voltage hydro lines blocking their entrance into the site. Once those were cleared, Young said they discovered the house had been "completely knocked off the foundation and completely turned into debris."

He said they believe only one person lived in the home, but don't know if they were home at the time of the slide. RCMP have attempted to contact the homeowner and are considering them a missing person as of 8 p.m. PT on Saturday.

Young said his crew as well as the provincial Heavy Urban Search and Rescue unit were called in to try and find the homeowner, but that they didn't have any luck before having to shut down their operations for the night.

They plan to resume the search when there is light again Sunday morning.

No other homes were impacted by the mudslide on Saturday, according to the fire chief. Quarry Road was closed between Calgary Drive and MacIntyre Road.

The provincial River Forecast Centre issued a flood watch for the Coquitlam River, which means flooding is imminent and water has exceeded river banks, at 11:15 a.m. PT on Saturday.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Heaviest rain yet. Roughly 20 mm/hr.

[Typeing3]

12z GFS ensembles:

ens_image - 2024-10-20.png

12z ECMWF ensembles:

ens_image - 2024-10-20T.png

12z GEM ensembles:

ens_image - 2024-10-20T1.png

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[SouthSardiswx]

Has anybody seen Sardine? Seems like he got flushed away....been quiet here

I've been around B.C.'s best truck driver l've just been busy working and staying out of puddles.

[SouthSardiswx]

The rain gauge in east Coquitlam near my place was not in operation in Nov 2021, but the one in northeast Coquitlam was. Totals comparison below. We seemed to have faired o.k. in the central valley.


Northeast Coquitlam (Burke Mtn) rainfall totals
Nov 13-14-15, 2021: 208.8mm
Oct 18-19-20, 2024: 275.1mm (so far)


Nov 2021 source: https://www.flowworks.com/network/rainf ... &year=2021

Oct 2024 source: https://www.flowworks.com/network/rainf ... &year=2024

Wow so higher than November 2021 totals, but l'm assuming Hope eastward were spared unlike 2021's severe damage to roads and what not. I guess we need our numbers crunchers to compare these totals to Nov 2021 to see where the heaviest rain totals fell.

[Typeing3]

18z GFS shows a textbook La Nina pattern after day 6... chilly and active NW flow. A few dry periods with frosty mornings but plenty of cold rain for us which means the mountain snowpack could get a head start if it verifies.

gfs_z500a_namer_fh144-384.gif

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_namer_fh144-384 (1).gif

[Typeing3]

Storm total up to 228.3mm here in east Coquitlam.

54.5mm Friday + 140.3mm yesterday + 33.5mm so far today.

[Radar]

Now imagine that was snow instead of rain.

Storm total up to 228.3mm here in east Coquitlam.

54.5mm Friday + 140.3mm yesterday + 33.5mm so far today.

[Catnip]

Storm Totals IMBY

Friday Oct 18 - 53.39mm
Saturday Oct 19 - 116.61mm
Sunday Oct 20 - 34.01mm

Storm Total - 204.01mm

[Catnip]

Looks like BAM is going for above average temps come mid-November.

This "could" bode well for the hammer drop come December.

[Catnip]

'T was a nice drive to the Tulameen today

Still bummed the 2021 Atmospheric River wiped out the KVR along the river.

[Abby_wx]

Wow so higher than November 2021 totals, but l'm assuming Hope eastward were spared unlike 2021's severe damage to roads and what not. I guess we need our numbers crunchers to compare these totals to Nov 2021 to see where the heaviest rain totals fell.

My final storm total is 140.7 mm.

I definitely got more than that in 2021, and that was in Abbotsford, so presumably even more than that for Mission. Totally different beast for the valley.

[Bby_Mtn]

My Burnaby Mountain station - Burnwood and Curtis Streets:
Oct 18 57.0 mm
Oct 19 151.0 mm
Oct 20 34.8 mm
Storm total 242.8 mm

Highest 24 hours 180.0 mm from 5 pm Oct 18 to 5 pm Oct 19.
Highest 48 hours 221.0 mm from 9 am Oct 18 to 9 am Oct 20.
My numbers are pretty consistent with the Metro Vancouver Burnaby Mountain station:
https://www.flowworks.com/network/hmisc ... rnabyrain/

Note I was 135 mm for 48 hours during the atmospheric river of Nov 14-15, 2021, so this event shattered that storm record.

I am on the upslope of Burnaby Mountain.

[Canada Goose]

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