October 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

[SouthSardiswx]

With apologies to the Longest Johns, I have constructed this little ditty in honour of the up coming season of models, hopes and disappointments:

The models showed us a hurricane; a weather bomb, with torrential rain;
The wind died down and the sun came out- the forecast failed again!

Chorus:
Hey! hey! the weatherman come,
to give us forecasts of rain and sun;
He is rarely on the ball
So take your maps and leave.

Not bad M1, It's currently 13c @ the pond in south Sardis.

[PortKells]

Snowy mountains?

Hmm. Too early, could lead to a 2021 situation. Definitely something to keep an eye on.

[AbbyJr]

Major atmospheric river next weekend? Almost within 96hrs…

Here are the 24hr rain totals from 8PM Friday to 8PM Saturday:

IMG_0103.png

[Typeing3]

Major atmospheric river next weekend? Almost within 96hrs…

Here are the 24hr rain totals from 8PM Friday to 8PM Saturday:

IMG_0103.png

I feel like we're overdue for a big one in October. Bring it on!

[AbbyJr]

I feel like we're overdue for a big one in October. Bring it on!

Last big one in October was 2003 if I recall correctly. The typical YXX rain shadow was invisible during that event. While I doubt totals will reach 2003 levels this weekend, there is potential for some very heavy rainfall.

[stuffradio]

Major atmospheric river next weekend? Almost within 96hrs…

Here are the 24hr rain totals from 8PM Friday to 8PM Saturday:

IMG_0103.png

It would probably be closer to 50-70 mm instead of 100 but we will see. I remember we kept thinking the 2021 atmospheric river event was way overdone.

[AbbyJr]

Source: https://x.com/50ShadesofVan/status/1846241913617395950

Screenshot 2024-10-15 at 1.58.33 PM.png

[Catnip]

Where's Neetz?

[Catnip]

Some impressive rainfall totals from today's 12z Euro. Island looks to take the brunt of the precip.

Still a few days away though. Subject to changes, as always.

wet.png

[Catnip]

Wouldn't this be nice.

FS

cfs_t2m_anom_northamerica_202501_1.png

[AbbyJr]

Some impressive rainfall totals from today's 12z Euro. Island looks to take the brunt of the precip.

Still a few days away though. Subject to changes, as always.





wet.png

There's likely going to be some intense rainfall totals somewhere in the PNW next weekend. While SWBC will likely take the brunt of it, there still remains considerable uncertainty as to where the heaviest rain will setup. All depends on the exact placement of the AR, which is still unknown. Given all the run to run variability, we will have to wait a few more days to get some more clarity. Regardless, looks like a significant rainfall event.

[Hawk]

Wet flurries will make it down to the Similkameeeens in the next 48 hours
only a few hundred kms away..well and a few thousand feet in elevation too..lets face the facts

[Hawk]

Lots of instability with this incoming Low..snow levels will plummet in the next 72 hours
#ilovetroffs

[stuffradio]

Lots of instability with this incoming Low..snow levels will plummet in the next 72 hours
#ilovetroffs

Trough after trough!

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Hearing thunder in East Van.