September 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

[AbbyJr]

I'm really hoping we can get an old school arctic outbreak this winter. Most of our recent blasts have been run of the mill in terms of outflow winds. Would be epic to see something similar to December 1964, February 1989, or December 1990. There have been some other good ones such as December 2008, November 2010, and February 2019, but they weren't nearly as cold as the first three I mentioned. Here's my rankings for YXX:

Number 6:
February 2019: Run of the mill cold but outflow wind gusts reached 96km/h.

Number 5:
December 2008: Colder than February 2019 but still modified arctic air. Damaging outflow winds gusted to 96km/h.

Number 4:
November 2010: Very similar to December 2008 in terms of cold, but the winds were slightly weaker with gusts peaking at 93km/h.

Number 3:
February 1989: Top tier arctic airmass. Max wind gust hit 102km/h but YXX reported wind gusts in excess of 90km/h three days in a row.

Number 2:
December 1990: Two top tier arctic blasts, both featuring damaging outflow winds exceeding 90km/h. Max gust hit 115km/h.

Number 1:
December 1964: Top tier arctic blast plunged temperatures at YXX down to -18.3C. Outflow winds gusted to an incredible 121/kmh.

I'm sure there are other good ones but those are the ones off the top of my head. Lets go for December 1964, 1990, or February 1989.

It should be mentioned that not only did December 1964 feature an extremely intense arctic blast, it also had significant snowfall during the event. The peak depth was 43cm at YXX. Very similar event to December 2008. However, the initial arctic front in 1964 was much colder and had stronger wind gusts. Sure would be cool to see a repeat of either of those events but unfortunately, it will probably only happen in my dreams.

[Roberts Creeker]

What are Junko's?

Tasty little snacks for a hawk.

[SouthSardiswx]

Tasty little snacks for a hawk.

Gross

[SouthSardiswx]

I'm really hoping we can get an old school arctic outbreak this winter. Most of our recent blasts have been run of the mill in terms of outflow winds. Would be epic to see something similar to December 1964, February 1989, or December 1990. There have been some other good ones such as December 2008, November 2010, and February 2019, but they weren't nearly as cold as the first three I mentioned. Here's my rankings for YXX:

Number 6:
February 2019: Run of the mill cold but outflow wind gusts reached 96km/h.

Number 5:
December 2008: Colder than February 2019 but still modified arctic air. Damaging outflow winds gusted to 96km/h.

Number 4:
November 2010: Very similar to December 2008 in terms of cold, but the winds were slightly weaker with gusts peaking at 93km/h.

Number 3:
February 1989: Top tier arctic airmass. Max wind gust hit 102km/h but YXX reported wind gusts in excess of 90km/h three days in a row.

Number 2:
December 1990: Two top tier arctic blasts, both featuring damaging outflow winds exceeding 90km/h. Max gust hit 115km/h.

Number 1:
December 1964: Top tier arctic blast plunged temperatures at YXX down to -18.3C. Outflow winds gusted to an incredible 121/kmh.

I'm sure there are other good ones but those are the ones off the top of my head. Lets go for December 1964, 1990, or February 1989.

It should be mentioned that not only did December 1964 feature an extremely intense arctic blast, it also had significant snowfall during the event. The peak depth was 43cm at YXX. Very similar event to December 2008. However, the initial arctic front in 1964 was much colder and had stronger wind gusts. Sure would be cool to see a repeat of either of those events but unfortunately, it will probably only happen in my dreams.

Some nice research there young grass hopper.

[Typeing3]

I'm really hoping we can get an old school arctic outbreak this winter. Most of our recent blasts have been run of the mill in terms of outflow winds. Would be epic to see something similar to December 1964, February 1989, or December 1990. There have been some other good ones such as December 2008, November 2010, and February 2019, but they weren't nearly as cold as the first three I mentioned. Here's my rankings for YXX:

Number 6:
February 2019: Run of the mill cold but outflow wind gusts reached 96km/h.

Number 5:
December 2008: Colder than February 2019 but still modified arctic air. Damaging outflow winds gusted to 96km/h.

Number 4:
November 2010: Very similar to December 2008 in terms of cold, but the winds were slightly weaker with gusts peaking at 93km/h.

Number 3:
February 1989: Top tier arctic airmass. Max wind gust hit 102km/h but YXX reported wind gusts in excess of 90km/h three days in a row.

Number 2:
December 1990: Two top tier arctic blasts, both featuring damaging outflow winds exceeding 90km/h. Max gust hit 115km/h.

Number 1:
December 1964: Top tier arctic blast plunged temperatures at YXX down to -18.3C. Outflow winds gusted to an incredible 121/kmh.

I'm sure there are other good ones but those are the ones off the top of my head. Lets go for December 1964, 1990, or February 1989.

It should be mentioned that not only did December 1964 feature an extremely intense arctic blast, it also had significant snowfall during the event. The peak depth was 43cm at YXX. Very similar event to December 2008. However, the initial arctic front in 1964 was much colder and had stronger wind gusts. Sure would be cool to see a repeat of either of those events but unfortunately, it will probably only happen in my dreams.

December 1964 had a supressed jet for many periods throughout the month with the south coast being caught in the middle often.

Big temp/precip contrast up and down the west coast with southerly regions being very wet/mild and northern regions being very cold/dry. That's the reason why it's the snowiest December on record for many locales around our region, while it is the wettest December on record for places down south in Oregon and the coldest December on record further north up the coast in Prince Rupert.

[Typeing3]

00z GFS ensembles:

ens_image.png

00z ECMWF ensembles:

ens_image (1).png

00z GEM ensembles:

ens_image (2).png

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[stuffradio]

Here's the first time I have seen the thickness dropping below 540.

2024091812_054@007_E1_yxx_I_NAEFS@EPSGRAMS_dz1000@500_360.png

[Typeing3]

Seems like the cottonwoods are starting to shed their leaves a bit earlier than normal this year.

[Hound]

Seems like the cottonwoods are starting to shed their leaves a bit earlier than normal this year.

Ya, I noticed that too, and this year they are not heat stressed, so.... hmmm..

[SouthSardiswx]

Ya, I noticed that too, and this year they are not heat stressed, so.... hmmm..

I believe last year was similar previously we had afew years in a row where heat and smoke caused stress and pre mature dying of leaves in late August. We had a high of 22c Wednesday at the pond in south Sardis.

[SouthSardiswx]

I was able to change my avatar Stuffy man l was hitting the wrong button up top l tried the button to the left of the bell up top on the right and l got my profile up o.k.

[Mattman]

I'm really hoping we can get an old school arctic outbreak this winter. Most of our recent blasts have been run of the mill in terms of outflow winds. Would be epic to see something similar to December 1964, February 1989, or December 1990. There have been some other good ones such as December 2008, November 2010, and February 2019, but they weren't nearly as cold as the first three I mentioned. Here's my rankings for YXX:

Number 6:
February 2019: Run of the mill cold but outflow wind gusts reached 96km/h.

Number 5:
December 2008: Colder than February 2019 but still modified arctic air. Damaging outflow winds gusted to 96km/h.

Number 4:
November 2010: Very similar to December 2008 in terms of cold, but the winds were slightly weaker with gusts peaking at 93km/h.

Number 3:
February 1989: Top tier arctic airmass. Max wind gust hit 102km/h but YXX reported wind gusts in excess of 90km/h three days in a row.

Number 2:
December 1990: Two top tier arctic blasts, both featuring damaging outflow winds exceeding 90km/h. Max gust hit 115km/h.

Number 1:
December 1964: Top tier arctic blast plunged temperatures at YXX down to -18.3C. Outflow winds gusted to an incredible 121/kmh.

I'm sure there are other good ones but those are the ones off the top of my head. Lets go for December 1964, 1990, or February 1989.

It should be mentioned that not only did December 1964 feature an extremely intense arctic blast, it also had significant snowfall during the event. The peak depth was 43cm at YXX. Very similar event to December 2008. However, the initial arctic front in 1964 was much colder and had stronger wind gusts. Sure would be cool to see a repeat of either of those events but unfortunately, it will probably only happen in my dreams.

Fantastic work. Interesting that Dec ‘21 &’22, and Jan ‘24 had the coldest temperatures since Jan ‘12, but the winds—although strong—weren’t exceptional. I would think that an airmass that cold would be that much more dense, which would mean a tighter gradient.

The second surge of Arctic air between Christmas and New Years Eve ‘90 was blizzard-like in Kelowna. That was the night I broke my elbow in a sledding accident. When my dad and I left the hospital late that evening—-wow. It was Winnipeg. When an Arctic airmass settles in the Okanagan, sure it gets windy, but nothing like Fraser Valley. But that event was another animal.

[Typeing3]

gfs_z500a_namer_43.png

gfs_T2m_nwus_44.png

[AbbyJr]

Fantastic work. Interesting that Dec ‘21 &’22, and Jan ‘24 had the coldest temperatures since Jan ‘12, but the winds—although strong—weren’t exceptional. I would think that an airmass that cold would be that much more dense, which would mean a tighter gradient.

The second surge of Arctic air between Christmas and New Years Eve ‘90 was blizzard-like in Kelowna. That was the night I broke my elbow in a sledding accident. When my dad and I left the hospital late that evening—-wow. It was Winnipeg. When an Arctic airmass settles in the Okanagan, sure it gets windy, but nothing like Fraser Valley. But that event was another animal.

December 1990 also had a major snowfall event. YXX recorded 43.8cm on the 30th that month. Brief warm up afterwards before another period of arctic air settled in for about a week to start the new year. While the outflow winds were light during that event, it was very snowy. Looked like a colder version of February 2017. The peak snow depth at YXX was 44cm on January 9th, 1991. Overall, the 1990/91 winter was very exciting for weather enthusiasts. Would be awesome to see a repeat but again, winters around here nowadays don't seem to feature the back to back arctic blasts that used to be much more common. But having said that, the past few winters have been nice glimpse of the past. Maybe this upcoming winter will the one for the memory books? It's bound to happen again at some point. It sure would be nice but again I'm probably dreaming. But fingers crossed.

[stuffradio]

Is that a 961 low?

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_namer_61.png