September 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

[AbbyJr]

The 18Z Euro thinks we are in Southern Ontario or Florida. No way these dew points for Thursday evening verify. But it will still be muggy.

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[Cloverdale]

That’s beautiful! I could do 700 m gain, easier than the Eaton Lake trail. Pity you apparently need 4WD to reach the trailhead.

Cheam trail is cruisy once you get there. FSR is not fun. A full hour one way. Did it in a Tacoma and made it to the trail head but people were parking farther down and that’s after they fixed the worst part in the road last year. Last year when we did it we did not make it to the trail head and it became a 15km 900m hike.

[Typeing3]

00z GFS ensembles:

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00z ECMWF ensembles:

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00z GEM ensembles:

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[Abby_wx]

The 18Z Euro thinks we are in Southern Ontario or Florida. No way these dew points for Thursday evening verify. But it will still be muggy.


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Yeah, those never verify. But dewpoints approaching 20C is still a bit uncomfortable.

[AbbyJr]

Yeah, those never verify. But dewpoints approaching 20C is still a bit uncomfortable.

Dew points near 20C are very much doable in the Fraser Valley. While not super common, they are not unprecedented here either.

[Glacier]

Dew points near 20C are very much doable in the Fraser Valley. While not super common, they are not unprecedented here either.

It's EXTREMELY rare in September though.

71 years of hourly data at YXX, so 51,240 datapoints.

How many of those had a dewpoint of 20?

Just 2!

2/51240 = 0.004% of the time in September the dewpoint is 20C.

Only occurrences:
1) 1963-09-09 18:00:00 PDT (20.0C)
2) 2013-09-11 18:00:00 PDT (20.5C)

So, it could happen, but very very uncommon.

[AbbyJr]

It's EXTREMELY rare in September though.

71 years of hourly data at YXX, so 51,240 datapoints.

How many of those had a dewpoint of 20?

Just 2!

2/51240 = 0.004% of the time in September the dewpoint is 20C.

Only occurrences:
1) 1963-09-09 18:00:00 PDT (20.0C)
2) 2013-09-11 18:00:00 PDT (20.5C)

So, it could happen, but very very uncommon.

Good point.

[SouthSardiswx]

It's EXTREMELY rare in September though.

71 years of hourly data at YXX, so 51,240 datapoints.

How many of those had a dewpoint of 20?

Just 2!

2/51240 = 0.004% of the time in September the dewpoint is 20C.

Only occurrences:
1) 1963-09-09 18:00:00 PDT (20.0C)
2) 2013-09-11 18:00:00 PDT (20.5C)

So, it could happen, but very very uncommon.

We reached a high of 28c @ the pond in south Sardis.
Based on your very astute mathematical analysis Glace using A.I. the second time YXX reached a 20c dewpoint was more recently which is troublesome going forward.

[Mattman]

That’s beautiful! I could do 700 m gain, easier than the Eaton Lake trail. Pity you apparently need 4WD to reach the trailhead.

Although it’s been 19 years since I was up there, I was told then we needed a 4WD. My ‘91 2WD GM pickup did just fine. It had plenty of clearance. The running boards gently scrapped the road in places, but nothing serious. I don’t know how degraded the road is since then. But then if one had a vehicle with plenty of clearance and knew how to navigate that, 2WD was very doable.

I went with a group of friends from church that time in July ‘05. There was almost a dozen of us. After we had summited we were resting at that little lake when there was a cry—scream, really—for help a couple hundred meters up the trail. It was a party of two women. One had slipped and it was obvious her leg was badly broken. Good thing we were a large party. Us guys carried her to my truck. We gingerly placed her in the box. My friend in his pu raced down the mountain and called an ambulance. I drove as cautiously as possible as every bump was agony for her. But she was also going into shock so I was trying to go as quickly as possible too, if that makes sense. Made it quite a ways down before I met the ambulance. After the adrenaline wore off coupled with the fatigue of the hike, we were famished and exhausted. It was pizza, beer, and a movie for us to unwind. That was my Cheam experience. I’ve wondered how her recovery went as that was a really break with the bone protruding under the skin.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Although it’s been 19 years since I was up there, I was told then we needed a 4WD. My ‘91 2WD GM pickup did just fine. It had plenty of clearance. The running boards gently scrapped the road in places, but nothing serious. I don’t know how degraded the road is since then. But then if one had a vehicle with plenty of clearance and knew how to navigate that, 2WD was very doable.

I went with a group of friends from church that time in July ‘05. There was almost a dozen of us. After we had summited we were resting at that little lake when there was a cry—scream, really—for help a couple hundred meters up the trail. It was a party of two women. One had slipped and it was obvious her leg was badly broken. Good thing we were a large party. Us guys carried her to my truck. We gingerly placed her in the box. My friend in his pu raced down the mountain and called an ambulance. I drove as cautiously as possible as every bump was agony for her. But she was also going into shock so I was trying to go as quickly as possible too, if that makes sense. Made it quite a ways down before I met the ambulance. After the adrenaline wore off coupled with the fatigue of the hike, we were famished and exhausted. It was pizza, beer, and a movie for us to unwind. That was my Cheam experience. I’ve wondered how her recovery went as that was a really break with the bone protruding under the skin.

Maybe I will give it a try, then. I have a stock 2WD Tacoma and am pretty good at coaxing it up rough forest service roads. Have also heard that the worst spot was repaired about a year ago.

[stuffradio]

It's hot today, around 32C. We should drop in temperatures after tomorrow though

I got my oldest two children from their first day of Preschool today.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Max of 30.1˚C here today.

[Antares]

Max of 28.3C with a 12.3C minimum and cloudless skies today. Most likely the last nice and warm day of the year.

[Abby_wx]

33.3C here.

[PortKells]

Max of 28.3C with a 12.3C minimum and cloudless skies today. Most likely the last nice and warm day of the year.

It’s September 5th.