August 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Typeing3
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Re: August 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

AbbyJr wrote: Tue Aug 27, 2024 3:27 pm Significant heat ridge in the clown range. :14clown: :wave:

Maps valid for 5PM Thursday September 5th. Keep in mind, that would be a heat reload as it looks to get warm and humid this weekend. But as I said, it's in the clown range. Anything beyond 200hrs out is for entertainment purposes. At the very least, it looks like a warm end to summer. :thumbup:

Euro:
euro500mb.png


GEM:
gem500mb.png
1988!! :clap:
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Re: August 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

12z GFS ensembles:
ens_image (9).png
12z ECMWF ensembles:
ens_image (10).png
12z GEM ensembles:
ens_image (11).png



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20240828011234-3cc9fb657c289f467b8ab3d446e96ae70d04bd81.png
20240828011222-4e98efde942909ffe2eef6e2e34b76f0516eea03.png
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Re: August 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Typeing3 wrote: Tue Aug 27, 2024 6:07 pm 1988!! :clap:
For what it's worth, the 500mb pattern for September 2nd, 1988 looks almost identical to what today's 12Z GEM shows in the clown range. :clap: :wave:

September 2nd, 1988:
xx_reanalyse-en-196-0_modera5_198809030000_15805_310.png

12Z GEM valid for September 5th, 2024:
500mbgem.png
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Re: August 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

AbbyJr wrote: Tue Aug 27, 2024 6:23 pm For what it's worth, the 500mb pattern for September 2nd, 1988 looks almost identical to what today's 12Z GEM shows in the clown range. :clap: :wave:

September 2nd, 1988:
xx_reanalyse-en-196-0_modera5_198809030000_15805_310.png


12Z GEM valid for September 5th, 2024:
500mbgem.png
That was a top tier September heatwave. Let's go for a repeat this year! 8-)
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Re: August 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

PortKells wrote: Tue Aug 27, 2024 4:58 pm Instability to my northeast:

97499443-98C7-45CB-8675-CD16CF493183.jpeg
Had a brief shower in east Coquitlam around 5pm.
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Re: August 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Hawk »

Typeing3 wrote: Tue Aug 27, 2024 8:02 pm That was a top tier September heatwave. Let's go for a repeat this year! 8-)
troff offshore is not digging as much as 1988. The ridge will flatten and get undercut. Tell em Nito!! :lol: :lol:
January 2025 incoming..looks like more Pineapples..Happy New Year! :think:
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Re: August 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Roberts Creeker »

Aurora Borealis is active tonight! :clap: :clap:

You can also see it on the Cypress webcam:
https://www.skaping.com/cypress-mountai ... wKW51Cupsw
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Re: August 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Hound »

Sure are Creeker!
2024-08-27_221138.jpg
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Re: August 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Glacier »

Typeing3 wrote: Tue Aug 27, 2024 6:07 pm 1988!! :clap:
It's crazt that Williams Lake was 39 then! As was McLeese Lake to the north. As was Yale and Billings (near grand forks).

Anyway today is Brrrrrrrrr!

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Re: August 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Glacier wrote: Wed Aug 28, 2024 8:13 am It's crazt that Williams Lake was 39 then! As was McLeese Lake to the north. As was Yale and Billings (near grand forks).

Anyway today is Brrrrrrrrr!

-3.2 at Tatlayoko Lake and -2.4 at Puntzi Mountain
Was +7.5C this morning over here. Rather chilly. :totalfreeze:
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Re: August 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by stuffradio »

Ben Noll posted about how we now have a developing Nina with a +IOD instead of a negative one. The analog years I think are associated with a weak La Nina and a +IOD are 2005, 2008, 2010 and 2016. Thoughts?
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Re: August 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by SouthSardiswx »

stuffradio wrote: Wed Aug 28, 2024 12:03 pm Ben Noll posted about how we now have a developing Nina with a +IOD instead of a negative one. The analog years I think are associated with a weak La Nina and a +IOD are 2005, 2008, 2010 and 2016. Thoughts?
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Re: August 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by PortKells »

Today is the perfect weather day and I’m here for it.
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Re: August 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

stuffradio wrote: Wed Aug 28, 2024 12:03 pm Ben Noll posted about how we now have a developing Nina with a +IOD instead of a negative one. The analog years I think are associated with a weak La Nina and a +IOD are 2005, 2008, 2010 and 2016. Thoughts?
2008 and 2016 were great. The rest were decent. Overall, a good set of analogs. :clap: :thumbup: :wave:
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Re: August 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

PortKells wrote: Wed Aug 28, 2024 12:25 pm Today is the perfect weather day and I’m here for it.
Too cold! :chilly:
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