July 2024 Forecasts And Discussions

[AbbyJr]

Well if you thought June 28th, 2021 was oppressive in terms of heat and humidity, check out June 20, 1953 in Windsor Ontario.

On that day, the temperature hit 35.0C with a dew point of 28.9C, and 70% humidity. The humidex hit 52.1C.

[Typeing3]

1906 was the hottest month prior July 2021...

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Average high of 36.5c in August 1898 (inc. 8 days with missing data unfortunately).

I believe several locales in eastern Washington and Oregon also have records dating back to that month.

[Typeing3]

12z GFS ensembles:

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12z ECMWF ensembles:

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12z GEM ensembles:

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[stuffradio]

It's 11C.

[John]

It's 11C.

Love them, cool mornings

Looks like all models are agreeing on significant rainfall event in about six days would be fantastic! Looking 30 to 40 mm as a real possibility!!

[Catnip]

Love them, cool mornings

Looks like all models are agreeing on significant rainfall event in about six days would be fantastic! Looking 30 to 40 mm as a real possibility!!

Would be nice but I wouldn't be surprised if models dry things out as we get closer.

But some rain is definitely needed.

The Euro seems to be the "wettest" model.

[PortKells]

Love them, cool mornings

Looks like all models are agreeing on significant rainfall event in about six days would be fantastic! Looking 30 to 40 mm as a real possibility!!

That would be a massive rainfall for this time of year. 5-10 mm would be my guess.

[stuffradio]

That would be a massive rainfall for this time of year. 5-10 mm would be my guess.

Wasn't it a couple years back where we started getting small douses of rain here and there in August, then it continued into September and even the rest of Fall?

[Glacier]

Average high of 36.5c in August 1898 (inc. 8 days with missing data unfortunately).

I believe several locales in eastern Washington and Oregon also have records dating back to that month.

Interesting... So let's compare Kamloops and Spences Bridge. Kamloops averaged 33.38695652C for the dates Spences Bridge had data and only 32.58709677 for the entire month. That's a difference of 0.799859748C

So subtract the difference from the Spences Bridge average of 36.53478261 gives you 35.73492286C, which is 0.1C higher than the 2021 record!

But, let's use more stations. How about Agassiz... It had an astounding average daily high of 31.25483871!

BUT ECCC has adjusted this down to 30.0C in their amalgamation database (when they account for site location differences back then vs. now).

BUT this is still the hottest month at Agassiz since the 1800s...

BUT one month was hotter, and that was August 1897! Average adjusted max of 30.4C

I have no idea how they adjust the 1897 figure from 30.7 to 30.4C but the 1898 figure gets adjusted from 31.3 to 30.0! It makes no sense.

Anyway, the next hottest months on record at Agassiz were July 1906 (29.3 [adjusted from 30.5] and July 1958 (29.1, not adjusted).

Anyway, I'm guessing Spences Bridge more closely tracks with Kamloops than Agassiz in terms of deviation from average on a given day, but maybe more in the middle. It's certainly possible that Spences Bridge did set the all time record in August 1898, but no one was there to record it.

aug18982.png

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

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[PortKells]

430 fires burning in the province. Imagine how many we would have in a year with summer!

[PortKells]

Wasn't it a couple years back where we started getting small douses of rain here and there in August, then it continued into September and even the rest of Fall?

That might describe a lot of years but I don't remember that year specifically. All i know is a significant summer rainfall is basically a unicorn event now. I would actually say its more rare than a significant snowfall in winter.

[Typeing3]

That would be a massive rainfall for this time of year. 5-10 mm would be my guess.

July 24/25, 2023: 22mm of rain in northeast Coquitlam.

[Typeing3]

Wasn't it a couple years back where we started getting small douses of rain here and there in August, then it continued into September and even the rest of Fall?

2021!

[Canada Goose]

Well if you thought June 28th, 2021 was oppressive in terms of heat and humidity, check out June 20, 1953 in Windsor Ontario.

On that day, the temperature hit 35.0C with a dew point of 28.9C, and 70% humidity. The humidex hit 52.1C.

July 25, 2007 in Carman, MB: Tx 34.5°C, dew point 30.0°C , humidex 53. All-time records for Canada.
https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_d ... 7&time=LST