May 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

[Coquitlam79]

The ensembles showing a big ridge building in for the West Coast late next week ot a little after that. That typhoon off the Philippines started tracking NE and re curving into the westerlies and that likely will be the catalyst to buckle the unseasonably strong jet stream and amplify the pattern, building up a big west coast ridge. The question remains how hot it will get and that really depends in where the ridge is centered so no point calling for a heat wave yet like some yahoo's on X showing all these red and purple colors and arbitrarily calling it another heat "dome' 10 days out! Clickbait is all it is.

[Bear Golden]

Honestly, whether we like it or not, this province could use some healing this summer. Just looking at what's happening in India right now is tragic, and we are still picking up the pieces from the 2021 heat dome.

Anecdotal for sure, but I've been foraging mushrooms locally for the last 7 or so years and through that, have learned a ton about forest health and the delicate nature of the ecosystems that the forests preserve - the damage I've seen in our mountains within that time is staggering. In the long run, it's not looking good regardless, but I for one say bring on the rain and keep it coming!

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[PortKells]

The year without summer continues...

Which year are you talking about?

[Typeing3]

00z GFS ensembles:

ens_image (3).png

00z ECMWF ensembles:

ens_image (4).png

00z GEM ensembles:

ens_image (5).png

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[AbbyJr]

The ensembles showing a big ridge building in for the West Coast late next week ot a little after that. That typhoon off the Philippines started tracking NE and re curving into the westerlies and that likely will be the catalyst to buckle the unseasonably strong jet stream and amplify the pattern, building up a big west coast ridge. The question remains how hot it will get and that really depends in where the ridge is centered so no point calling for a heat wave yet like some yahoo's on X showing all these red and purple colors and arbitrarily calling it another heat "dome' 10 days out! Clickbait is all it is.

Good analysis. To be fair, the models have been pretty consistent with a strong heat ridge building over BC. The GFS initially spotted it but it's since backed off while the Euro is now showing what the GFS initially showed in previous runs. Typical. This happens all the time with our winter cold snaps. The GFS spots a pattern change in the long range and then as we move closer to event, it backs off while the other models begin jumping on board. At this time, I think there's a solid chance we get at least a few very warm days with the potential for prolonged hot period. But as you said, there's a lot of details still to be worked out. Even the most subtle changes with the offshore low can have major implications on the strength and position of the projected heat ridge. Therefore, it's simply way too soon to have any confidence on a substantial heatwave. But there is definitely potential so I'll be keeping a close eye on the models for the next week or so.

[SouthSardiswx]

Why was John's post deleted yet a certain member can make sarcastic remarks towards others

[Hound]

It's been a chilly Spring. The sad part about it, is on the drop of a dime, the weather will go from highs of 12 - 16 to 25 - 30 in a 2 day span..
Then we will all be feeling it big time. Heat bombs suck.

[SouthSardiswx]

It's been a chilly Spring. The sad part about it, is on the drop of a dime, the weather will go from highs of 12 - 16 to 25 - 30 in a 2 day span..
Then we will all be feeling it big time. Heat bombs suck.

That's true Houndmaster we're not climatized so it feels gross. today's high of 17c in the central valley is the highest this week.

[SouthSardiswx]

The ensembles showing a big ridge building in for the West Coast late next week ot a little after that. That typhoon off the Philippines started tracking NE and re curving into the westerlies and that likely will be the catalyst to buckle the unseasonably strong jet stream and amplify the pattern, building up a big west coast ridge. The question remains how hot it will get and that really depends in where the ridge is centered so no point calling for a heat wave yet like some yahoo's on X showing all these red and purple colors and arbitrarily calling it another heat "dome' 10 days out! Clickbait is all it is.

Once again Cmen comes through with another clutch analysis of where the heck is summer.

[SouthSardiswx]

Honestly, whether we like it or not, this province could use some healing this summer. Just looking at what's happening in India right now is tragic, and we are still picking up the pieces from the 2021 heat dome.

Anecdotal for sure, but I've been foraging mushrooms locally for the last 7 or so years and through that, have learned a ton about forest health and the delicate nature of the ecosystems that the forests preserve - the damage I've seen in our mountains within that time is staggering. In the long run, it's not looking good regardless, but I for one say bring on the rain and keep it coming!



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Nice to see Mr. G. Bear come in from the chilly damp weather to express his opinion usually we don't see him until winter. Which is weird he should be hibernating.

[Typeing3]

Which year are you talking about?

It's a mystery!

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

It’s not even June yet. Proclamations of a lack of summer this year strike me as a tad premature.

[Forrest Gump]

It's a mystery!

https://youtu.be/jU1lSHV89M4?si=4NpGwIFhoWyyo3yM

[Catnip]

It’s not even June yet. Proclamations of a lack of summer this year strike me as a tad premature.

Kind of like cancelling winter in November.

[stuffradio]

Kind of like cancelling winter in November.

Stick a pineapple in it.