December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

[Michael1]

From Brett Anderson:

However, Brett has been wrong many times before...

[Canada Goose]

Snowstake.jpg

[stuffradio]

SOME -PNA in the long range... let's see if they all start going negative.

pna.sprd2.gif

[Hawk]

Sorry Hawk, but that was ridiculous. Much respect for JA.

I didn't disrespect him...just pointed out that his statement says basically nothing

[Monty]

However, Brett has been wrong many times before...

He’s mostly just interpreting the models. If they’re wrong he will be wrong

[Catnip]

18z wants to get rid of ridging overhead in the extended.

[Hawk]

https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/bc-41_metric_e.html

[AbbyJr]

Chris Doyle versus Jay Albrecht

https://twitter.com/AlbrechtJay/status/ ... 79586?s=20

[Catnip]

Chris Doyle versus Jay Albrecht

https://twitter.com/AlbrechtJay/status/ ... 79586?s=20

#teamJay

[AbbyJr]

#teamJay

Do you agree with those who say the blob promotes ridge development and is thus at least partially responsible for the persistent ridging pattern?

[Hawk]

Do you agree with those who say the blob promotes ridge development and is thus at least partially responsible for the persistent ridging pattern?

Not that you want my answer but obvi that Blob never helps Jr. Cmon. Look at most of the weather we get when Blobby is back surfing our ocean. Ridgy/Splitty/ Bommy and Sh*tty hahahaha. Take your pick.

[SouthSardiswx]

I think this weather is starting to get to our Buttee.

Birdhead you got owned today, Jay Al is an icon his NWS reads were spectacular. I love ya buttteee but your a bird of many words and not much to back it up sometimes.

[Canada Goose]

Sorry, good game...

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-we ... tcOjgJUX-k

[Hawk]

Birdhead you got owned today, Jay Al is an icon his NWS reads were spectacular. I love ya buttteee but your a bird of many words and not much to back it up sometimes.

i got owned? Can u read?
and ya whatever...

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

I recall that being an epic model collapse as everything was in place for us to get historic snowfall and suddenly at the last minute the models drove it all south, correct me if I'm wrong?

The models flip-flopped like crazy in January 2012. First it was supposed to be a quick transition to mild conditions and rain with little or no snow. Then it was supposed to be somewhat slushy. Then very slushy (a huge dump of wet snow transitioning into rain a'la 1996). Then very snowy. (These are all the Seattle forecasts; I was living in Seattle at the time.)

IIRC points south of Seattle ended up getting the epic dumping (about 2 feet aka 60 cm) that was forecast to paralyze Seattle, which ended up being somewhat on the cool/dry side of things so "only" got 6 to 8 inches. The big surprise, as I already mentioned, was the following storm (forecast to be mild rain, turned out to be freezing rain).

I would not be surprised if things were initially forecast to be very snowy for SWBC; it's usually the case that the sweet spot for maximum snowfall isn't that big, with areas to the north being mostly cold and dry and those to the south mild and rainy.