December 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

[Hawk]

https://twitter.com/albrechtjay/status/ ... 08161?s=21

Lmao. What a generic statement.
That could mean anything.
Ona gut feeling no less

[Hawk]

If u believe the GFS, looks like storm for next Friday and weekend will melt any snow on local mountains. Nito..what do you think?

[South Island]

Lmao. What a generic statement.
That could mean anything.
Ona gut feeling no less

Jay is a retired forecaster from the national weather service in Seattle. If he has a gut feeling of a retrograding ridge I like our chances too of something interesting happening later this month or January.

[Monty]

Jay is a retired forecaster from the national weather service in Seattle. If he has a gut feeling of a retrograding ridge I like our chances too of something interesting happening later this month or January.

He is/ was a very a good forecaster. Used to post as Jaya on the American forums during winter weather episodes

[South Island]

He is/ was a very a good forecaster. Used to post as Jaya on the American forums during winter weather episodes

I loved his forecast NWS discussion write ups.

[Catnip]

Lmao. What a generic statement.
That could mean anything.
Ona gut feeling no less

Cmon Buttee. I wouldn't be sharing the tweet if it was just some random on twitter with a gut feeling.

[Storm]

Cmon Buttee. I wouldn't be sharing the tweet if it was just some random on twitter with a gut feeling.

Sorry Hawk, but that was ridiculous. Much respect for JA.

[Catnip]

Sorry Hawk, but that was ridiculous. Much respect for JA.

I think this weather is starting to get to our Buttee.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

There have been some decent Januarys though. Ex: 2005, 2007, 2009, 2011, and 2012.

Was in Seattle in January 2012 and that was quite the storm there: a decent accumulation of snow followed by a (completely unforecast) major ice storm.

[Catnip]

Some hints of retrogression towards the end?

But its until then.

GEFS Ensembles North America 500 hPa Height Anom.gif

[Typeing3]

There have been some decent Januarys though. Ex: 2005, 2007, 2009, 2011, and 2012.

Decent, yes. But anything close to what our climate used to produce on a relatively consistent basis in earlier years? No. YVR didn't even dip below -10C during any of those Januaries mentioned. That's usually a marker of a decent arctic blast around these parts.

Feels like I'm beating a broken record at this point but...the last -10C temp observed at YVR during January was back in 2004. The last January to average below 0C at YVR was way back in 1993. YVR also hasn't received over 30cm of snow in January since 2002.

[Catnip]

Decent, yes. But anything close to what our climate used to produce on a relatively consistent basis in earlier years? No. YVR didn't even dip below -10C during any of those Januaries mentioned. That's usually a marker of a decent arctic blast around these parts.

Feels like I'm beating a broken record at this point but...the last -10C temp observed at YVR during January was back in 2020. The last January to average below 0C at YVR was way back in 2020. YVR also hasn't received over 30cm of snow in January since 2020.

Updated for what you will be posting this time next year.

[Typeing3]

Was in Seattle in January 2012 and that was quite the storm there: a decent accumulation of snow followed by a (completely unforecast) major ice storm.

Suppression depression for us on the mainland during that event. The massive snowstorm dove south and left us cold with some flurries.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Lmao. What a generic statement.
That could mean anything.
Ona gut feeling no less

Retrograding is a common thing that ridges can do, and while there have been some real dud winters in this area, where not much more snow than what has already fallen has been all there's been, those winters are distinctly in the minority. Most of our winters get more snow. Plus, it's only early December so there's a lot of winter left to come. Just by playing those odds, it is highly favored that we will see more lowland snow this season. This is not wishcasting; it is being realistic.

[wetcoast91]

Models indicating a potential dry spell for week 2 and 3 of Dec.

Weak +ENSO state suggest blocking is here to stay this winter. Odds are we will see a cold period as stated above.