April 2024 Forecasts and discussion

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Typeing3
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Re: April 2024 Forecasts and discussion

Post by Typeing3 »

Catnip wrote: ↑Wed Apr 17, 2024 12:48 pm Overnight low of +0.6c

Just above freezing.

Nice and warm out there this afternoon. :thumbup:
Frosty this morning! Low of 0c.

Likely the last freeze of the season -- may see some more frost tomorrow AM.
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Re: April 2024 Forecasts and discussion

Post by Typeing3 »

12z GFS ensembles:
ens_image - 2024-04-17.png
12z ECMWF ensembles:
ens_image - 2024-04-17T.png
12z GEM ensembles:
ens_image - 2024-04-17T1.png



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20240418005748-ebc3903747f96e58ae4717c3f272d1b8633d97ab.png
20240418005729-c69bb1a48e4561e409a0992c7bbc23a0b3e870b1.png
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Re: April 2024 Forecasts and discussion

Post by Abby_wx »

Low of 2.1C high of 15.4C
:dragon:

Fall/Winter 2023/24
Low min: -16.6C (Jan 12th)
Low max: -9.9C (Jan 12th)
Snowfall: 8.0 cm
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Re: April 2024 Forecasts and discussion

Post by Mattman »

A wee bit windy in Mission this am. Dry outflow.
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Re: April 2024 Forecasts and discussion

Post by stuffradio »

BoM Australia has announced this week the El Nino is over and that we're in a neutral state until at least July.
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Re: April 2024 Forecasts and discussion

Post by Bonovox »

stuffradio wrote: ↑Thu Apr 18, 2024 6:02 am BoM Australia has announced this week the El Nino is over and that we're in a neutral state until at least July.
Good riddance. I think the atmosphere usually lags by a couple of months to decouple from the effects of El Niño.
Spring/Summer :sick: Fall/Winter :thumbup:

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Re: April 2024 Forecasts and discussion

Post by Catnip »

The latest from the Climate Prediction Center:

"A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (85% chance), with the odds of La Niña developing by June-August 2024 (60% chance)."
*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

:catnip: :alert:

#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

2022-2023 Snowfall - 114.5cm

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Re: April 2024 Forecasts and discussion

Post by tyweather »

stuffradio wrote: ↑Tue Apr 16, 2024 12:21 pm It will be a cold and rainy summer now for sure.
Your welcome. Jinx equivalent of getting a heat pump or central air conditioning installed is the equivalent of one of us getting a snow blower?
Why not try cycling to work, grocery store, anywhere!
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Re: April 2024 Forecasts and discussion

Post by stuffradio »

Here's the latest IRI Enso plume chart
figure3.png
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Re: April 2024 Forecasts and discussion

Post by Glacier »

tyweather wrote: ↑Tue Apr 16, 2024 12:10 pm Updated snowpack. Lowest on record. Hopefully we get a wet late spring and summer. I am prepared this summer for the heat, I got a heat pump installed.
Snow pack records began in 1935... so no I would not consider this year the lowest on record. Rather, I'd say it's the lowest since 1942...
snowpacka1total.png
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Re: April 2024 Forecasts and discussion

Post by stuffradio »

CPC released a seasonal outlook for DJF 2024/2025 showing above normal chances of precip and above normal chances of below normal temps for the PNW.
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Re: April 2024 Forecasts and discussion

Post by Typeing3 »

Glacier wrote: ↑Fri Apr 19, 2024 9:44 am Snow pack records began in 1935... so no I would not consider this year the lowest on record. Rather, I'd say it's the lowest since 1942...

snowpacka1total.png
Wow, late 30s/early 40s stretch had some really rough snowpack years. Multi-year drought?
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Re: April 2024 Forecasts and discussion

Post by Bonovox »

I was hoping for a neutral winter, but a weak Nina is okay too.
Spring/Summer :sick: Fall/Winter :thumbup:

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Re: April 2024 Forecasts and discussion

Post by stuffradio »

Bonovox wrote: ↑Fri Apr 19, 2024 1:16 pm I was hoping for a neutral winter, but a weak Nina is okay too.
I just want less snow donuts in Abbotsford ;)
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Re: April 2024 Forecasts and discussion

Post by AbbyJr »

Bonovox wrote: ↑Fri Apr 19, 2024 1:16 pm I was hoping for a neutral winter, but a weak Nina is okay too.
Let's aim for another classic arctic front with a major snowstorm. That would be four winters in a row including one that was a strong El Niño.
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