February 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Typeing3
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Re: February 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

PortKells wrote: Wed Feb 28, 2024 9:35 pm It's kinda weird right now, the euro keeps tripling down on a decent sized snowfall on Friday, but the HRDPS, NAM etc. aren't showing much of anything. I don't count the GFS it has a history of donking out in these situations...however the fact the Euro is with it is very interesting. Seems unlikely but maybe its sniffing something out?

ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera_cm-9467200.png
Absolute garbage... 30cm+ for Tofino? :lol: :14clown:
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Re: February 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

wetcoast91 wrote: Wed Feb 28, 2024 9:46 pm I'll eat yellow snow if Port Renfrew sees 40cm of snow.
Ok, OBVIOUSLY you shouldn't take the exact amounts from that map as much as the general message its selling that there will be a snowfall at all, probably one that can produce up to 10cm in spots. Which is in contrast with the other models (other than the GFS)
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Re: February 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

Typeing3 wrote: Wed Feb 28, 2024 9:50 pm Absolute garbage... 30cm+ for Tofino? :lol: :14clown:
It's the top performing model, I figured people might be interested in seeing it.
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Re: February 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

PortKells wrote: Wed Feb 28, 2024 9:59 pm It's the top performing model, I figured people might be interested in seeing it.
I want to see :rainzap: :lightning: :lightning: :lightning: :lightning: :storm: maps.

Friday!

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Re: February 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Borrowed from Jim. Snow tomorrow night?

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Re: February 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by SouthSardiswx »

PortKells wrote: Wed Feb 28, 2024 9:59 pm It's the top performing model, I figured people might be interested in seeing it.
The main theme of snow potential resonates with me Kells.
It's the 7th annual 2 old retired geezer's inaccurate snowfall contest
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Re: February 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Weather101 »

VanCitySouth wrote: Wed Feb 28, 2024 8:16 pm On an interesting note, wicked cold front out east. Ottawa from +16 to -13 in 8 hours.
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Re: February 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

wetcoast91 wrote: Wed Feb 28, 2024 10:02 pm I want to see :rainzap: :lightning: :lightning: :lightning: :lightning: :storm: maps.

Friday!

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There does seem to be potential;
ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-lightning_density_last6-9251200.png
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Re: February 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Storm »

925mb is taking a beating.
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Re: February 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by tyweather »

Back to snow on Cypress. 5 cm so far.
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Re: February 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

PortKells wrote: Wed Feb 28, 2024 9:59 pm It's the top performing model, I figured people might be interested in seeing it.
Its limited resolution gives it real issues with terrain bleed in our locale. If no high res short term model shows anything in the lowlands, I say throw it out.

Remember, the Euro called for a big dump Tuesday night. NAM 3km said a few slushy cm. Which was right?
It's called clown range for a reason.
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Re: February 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Rubus_Leucodermis wrote: Thu Feb 29, 2024 7:12 am Its limited resolution gives it real issues with terrain bleed in our locale. If no high res short term model shows anything in the lowlands, I say throw it out.

Remember, the Euro called for a big dump Tuesday night. NAM 3km said a few slushy cm. Which was right?
I actually think the Euro will verify in that the coastal regions will be impacted most. The coldest air aloft and heaviest showers will remain near the coast.
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Re: February 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Hawk »

Look at that instability..whoa :shock:
So Nito is saying the high hills of Westside Van will score? I remember once way back..forecast similar to this one. Low formed in the unstable airmass...and stalled near Victoria..dumped about 30cms in Kerrisdale. Must have been around 2000. Amazing HUGE fluffy flakes for hours :flakey: :flakey:
And here it is..December 2024 all snow geeks have been waiting for :silent: ..with the LR weather "charts" calling for a cold and snowy month. Where's the troffing? :silent: :silent:
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Re: February 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Hawk »

:alert:
Sounds like Nito is going for 5 to 10cms in localized areas due to some powerful instability :clap:
#teamNito
And here it is..December 2024 all snow geeks have been waiting for :silent: ..with the LR weather "charts" calling for a cold and snowy month. Where's the troffing? :silent: :silent:
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Re: February 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

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