February 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

[Weather101]

Quite a bit of phantom snow on the 18Z. Over 90 cm for Surrey. Could make cycling to work difficult.

90 cm

[tyweather]

Yes, close to 2 m of snow for the local mountains at 900m. I think I need to arrange a couple of ski days for late next week.

[John]

90 cm

It’s possible 101!

[PortKells]

We just have very low expectations due to our climate. Maybe being in ontario for a bit ruined how I look at winter. 2 days out of a 90-day winter is a C for me. On top of it being a warm winter as well.

Don't get me wrong, tho. You are correct with what you are saying about the 30 cm dump.

Yeah I mean I think back to the 2014-2016 period and think how much worse it’s been. As the climate warms you take what you can get unfortunately

[VanCitySouth]

https://twitter.com/MarkShumas/status/1 ... l3fDQ&s=19

His mental health is very important. EC is just being considerate.

[Catnip]

So winter is not re-cancelled after January?



Neetz, what gives.

I think the NFS needs a re-tooling during the off season.

[PortKells]

https://twitter.com/MarkShumas/status/1 ... l3fDQ&s=19

His mental health is very important. EC is just being considerate.

I just can't take Environment Canada seriously anymore.

I think they take the Canadian model outputs and just spit them out until a couple days away. The Canadian model has a clear and obvious warm bias when you compare it to the other models. Although that doesn't explain june 2021...I think they just didn't believe the model output there.

[Catnip]

I just can't take Environment Canada seriously anymore.

I think they take the Canadian model outputs and just spit them out until a couple days away. The Canadian model has a clear and obvious warm bias when you compare it to the other models. Although that doesn't explain june 2021...I think they just didn't believe the model output there.

Ya, they usually play things on the conservative side and slowly lower the temperature trends as the event gets closer. Seems to be their thing.

[VanCitySouth]

Ya, they usually play things on the conservative side and slowly lower the temperature trends as the event gets closer. Seems to be their thing.

Honestly for Vancouver that isn't the worst play in the world. They're a bit too conservative but oh well. Wouldn't be EC if they were good all the time.

[snowjoker]

We just have very low expectations due to our climate. Maybe being in ontario for a bit ruined how I look at winter. 2 days out of a 90-day winter is a C for me. On top of it being a warm winter as well.

Don't get me wrong, tho. You are correct with what you are saying about the 30 cm dump.

In most measurable aspects, this has been an F-tier winter. Very warm maxes, very few days with sub-freezing lows, mountains that are bare thru mid-February. Even with the January snow, we are barely above the average winter snowfall at all (about 35 cm at YVR this year vs a 30-year moving average of about 30 cm). The 30 cm dump is good, but after similar dumps in December 2021 and 2022 is not that far an outlier anymore.

I would give this winter a C, with a decent chance of moving up to a C+ with any sticking snow next week. I don't think grading a winter better because it happened in a Niño is really productive, and as a lot of those on here know the cold neutrals often outperform Niñas in the PacNW anyways.

[SouthSardiswx]

In most measurable aspects, this has been an F-tier winter. Very warm maxes, very few days with sub-freezing lows, mountains that are bare thru mid-February. Even with the January snow, we are barely above the average winter snowfall at all (about 35 cm at YVR this year vs a 30-year moving average of about 30 cm). The 30 cm dump is good, but after similar dumps in December 2021 and 2022 is not that far an outlier anymore.

I would give this winter a C, with a decent chance of moving up to a C+ with any sticking snow next week. I don't think grading a winter better because it happened in a Niño is really productive, and as a lot of those on here know the cold neutrals often outperform Niñas in the PacNW anyways.

I can see your point Mr. Jokerman but we have short memories we will look back and say remember that arctic blast and dump of snow and forget about that 19c midnight temperature afew weeks back and the lack of mountain snow.

[PortKells]

Honestly for Vancouver that isn't the worst play in the world. They're a bit too conservative but oh well. Wouldn't be EC if they were good all the time.

I think they overdo the conservatism personally. When extreme events happen people need to know. If they bust, well good! Write that in every forecast that things can always bust but be prepared for if they don't, which lately is a lot.

[PortKells]

Looking for my third snow day of the year..

gfs-deterministic-vancouverski-snow_24hr_kuchera_cm-9132400.png

[PortKells]

Worth noting that Bellingham gets a dump on Monday on this run..we know how things can shift and that's super close to us.

gfs-deterministic-vancouverski-snow_24hr_kuchera_cm-8992000.png

[SouthSardiswx]

Worth noting that Bellingham gets a dump on Monday on this run..we know how things can shift and that's super close to us.

gfs-deterministic-vancouverski-snow_24hr_kuchera_cm-8992000.png

Possibly puts Abbs in a nice spot for once Jr. Man will be excited.