February 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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PortKells
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Re: February 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

Saved?
137727C2-5C9F-4C68-B035-DA70202D7D4C.png

Now we will have a 25% snowpack instead of a 0% snowpack!
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PortKells
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Re: February 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

wetcoast91 wrote: Fri Feb 16, 2024 12:17 pm I want cold :dancepine: storms now to up the snowpack up there.

Looking at lots of :firez: :13fire: :firez: :13fire: if we get a warm and dry spring.
The fires might start earlier but snowpack seems to have no bearing on summer fire season. 2017 and 2018 featured close to record snowpacks followed by record fire seasons.

This may be partially caused by cut blocks, which expose huge swaths of snowpack to direct sunlight, increasing melt rate by many times. Thereby reducing the snowpack’s effectiveness as a fire buffer.

The only thing that will reduce fires is the fabled “cool summer”. We all know the likelihood of those ever occurring again.
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Re: February 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Radar »

PortKells wrote: Fri Feb 16, 2024 3:04 pm The fires might start earlier but snowpack seems to have no bearing on summer fire season. 2017 and 2018 featured close to record snowpacks followed by record fire seasons.

This may be partially caused by cut blocks, which expose huge swaths of snowpack to direct sunlight, increasing melt rate by many times. Thereby reducing the snowpack’s effectiveness as a fire buffer.

The only thing that will reduce fires is the fabled “cool summer”. We all know the likelihood of those ever occurring again.
You can reduce fires with carbon tax!

BC has too many trees. Bring back the grasslands.
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Re: February 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by John »

Radar wrote: Fri Feb 16, 2024 8:11 pm You can reduce fires with carbon tax!

BC has too many trees. Bring back the grasslands.
;)
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Re: February 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by John »

PortKells wrote: Fri Feb 16, 2024 3:04 pm The fires might start earlier but snowpack seems to have no bearing on summer fire season. 2017 and 2018 featured close to record snowpacks followed by record fire seasons.

This may be partially caused by cut blocks, which expose huge swaths of snowpack to direct sunlight, increasing melt rate by many times. Thereby reducing the snowpack’s effectiveness as a fire buffer.

The only thing that will reduce fires is the fabled “cool summer”. We all know the likelihood of those ever occurring again.
It will happen again, nothing stays the same my friend
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Re: February 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Hawk »

Mid Feb +
We are now getting to the time of year where ridging is preferred :clap: see if we can catch a 18c sunny day 8-)
bye bye troffs..go away :shh:
January 2025 incoming..looks like more Pineapples..Happy New Year! :think:
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Re: February 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Abby_wx »

Probably going to get the snow tires taken off on the 26th unless the models lock onto something.
:dragon:

Fall/Winter 2023/24
Low min: -16.6C (Jan 12th)
Low max: -9.9C (Jan 12th)
Snowfall: 8.0 cm
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Re: February 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

:14clown: :flakey:

Maybe leave those tires on for another week or so, Abby_wx?
ecmwf-ensemble-CYVR-indiv_snow-8128000.png
gfs-ensemble-all-CYVR-indiv_snow-8149600.png
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Re: February 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

Rubus_Leucodermis wrote: Sat Feb 17, 2024 8:16 am :14clown: :flakey:

Maybe leave those tires on for another week or so, Abby_wx?

ecmwf-ensemble-CYVR-indiv_snow-8128000.png
gfs-ensemble-all-CYVR-indiv_snow-8149600.png
cmc-ensemble-all-CYVR-indiv_snow-8128000.png
I suspect as we get closer it'll become more of a Burnaby mountain thing if anything. It looks like more of a mountain snow pattern which is of course a good thing but it looks like the cold air stays bottled up in Alaska maybe making down to the central coast. Maybe a snow shower here if precip rates allow.
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Re: February 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by SouthSardiswx »

John wrote: Fri Feb 16, 2024 9:10 pm;)
John! :wave:
The 7th annual snowfall contest is canceled due to no snow this winter.
:gramps: Wrinkle Rockers: 0cm :mehrain:
:hockey: South Sardinies: 0cm :morerain:
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Re: February 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by SouthSardiswx »

PortKells wrote: Sat Feb 17, 2024 2:00 pm I suspect as we get closer it'll become more of a Burnaby mountain thing if anything. It looks like more of a mountain snow pattern which is of course a good thing but it looks like the cold air stays bottled up in Alaska maybe making down to the central coast. Maybe a snow shower here if precip rates allow.
Or it will collapse in to a spring abyss. :x :(
The 7th annual snowfall contest is canceled due to no snow this winter.
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Re: February 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Hawk »

PortKells wrote: Sat Feb 17, 2024 2:00 pm I suspect as we get closer it'll become more of a Burnaby mountain thing if anything. It looks like more of a mountain snow pattern which is of course a good thing but it looks like the cold air stays bottled up in Alaska maybe making down to the central coast. Maybe a snow shower here if precip rates allow.
Or worse yet..the dreaded overnight wet flurry..with no trace of anything falling overnight at all when you wake up :lol: :lol:
January 2025 incoming..looks like more Pineapples..Happy New Year! :think:
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Re: February 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

Ski season is back on!!
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Re: February 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Coquitlam79 »

PortKells wrote: Fri Feb 16, 2024 3:04 pm The fires might start earlier but snowpack seems to have no bearing on summer fire season. 2017 and 2018 featured close to record snowpacks followed by record fire seasons.

This may be partially caused by cut blocks, which expose huge swaths of snowpack to direct sunlight, increasing melt rate by many times. Thereby reducing the snowpack’s effectiveness as a fire buffer.

The only thing that will reduce fires is the fabled “cool summer”. We all know the likelihood of those ever occurring again.
It's really May and June that set the stage for the fire season. We get a hot and dry May/June , followed by even an "old"normal summer (which is periodically hot in the Interior with sporadic thunderstorms) that sets the stage for a bad fire season. But add what is a "new" normal summer (hot pretty much the whole summer) and its automatically going to be a brutal fire season.
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Re: February 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

PortKells wrote: Fri Feb 16, 2024 3:04 pm The fires might start earlier but snowpack seems to have no bearing on summer fire season. 2017 and 2018 featured close to record snowpacks followed by record fire seasons.

This may be partially caused by cut blocks, which expose huge swaths of snowpack to direct sunlight, increasing melt rate by many times. Thereby reducing the snowpack’s effectiveness as a fire buffer.

The only thing that will reduce fires is the fabled “cool summer”. We all know the likelihood of those ever occurring again.
Dry surface soils with an earlier spring could suggest potential fire activity occuring sooner. The forest floor along Burke Mountain at 900m is shockingly dry already. This is very concerning.

Major issue is up north with "zombie fires" readying to spring up. Overall a deep snowpack along with a slow melt and cooler than normal summer is definitely needed.
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