January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

[Michael1]

The latest "good news" from EC:

2:03 PM PST Friday 26 January 2024

A series of storms bringing warm temperatures, elevated freezing levels and heavy rain will increase the potential for flooding, water pooling and possible landslides.

When: Saturday to Monday, possibly until mid week

Where: West, North, Inland and East Vancouver Island, Sunshine Coast, Howe Sound, Metro Vancouver - Central, Metro Vancouver - North Shore, Metro Vancouver - Northeast.

Hazards:
- Heavy rainfall combined with mountain snow melt will lead to enhanced responses in river systems and the potential for flooding
- Water pooling on roads
- Risk of landslides in vulnerable areas (such as burn scars) due to heavy rain falling on already very saturated surfaces
- Potential for falling tree branches and power outages due to strong winds and saturated soil
- Travel delays are possible

Confidence: There is high confidence in the warmth of the airmass and the extended rainfall event itself. There is low to moderate confidence in the exact location and timing of the heaviest rain.

Remarks:
A series of storms will bring periods of heavy rain to coastal BC. The very warm airmass will result in temperatures 5 to 10 degrees Celsius above seasonal.

Freezing levels will rise to approximately 2000 metres tonight. Through the day on Saturday the freezing levels will continue to rise to between 2500 to 3000 metres. These elevated freezing levels will persist into mid next week. The combination of elevated freezing levels and heavy rain will result in snow melt which will be in addition to the already heavy rainfall.

The heaviest rainfall is expected to occur between Sunday and Monday. There will be periods of lighter rain between the storms, but it is the cumulative effects of the storms that is likely to be impactful.

[wetcoast91]

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-namer-z500_anom-7566400.png

Heart shaped ridge for Valentines day!

[AbbyJr]

February 2018. Lock it in.

[VanCitySouth]

February 2018. Lock it in.

Can we have Feb 2014 except maybe 3 degrees colder?

I remember it snowing for pretty much 3 days straight. I don't think it amounted to much at the airport because it was barely above freezing the whole time there, but I had just enough elevation where we did get accumulating snow, and the best part was it snowed harder and harder with every goal Canada scored during the gold medal game in the Olympics.

So a repeat of that but 3 degrees colder would be nice.

[Typeing3]

February 2018. Lock it in.

That would be great!

[Typeing3]

Can we have Feb 2014 except maybe 3 degrees colder?

I remember it snowing for pretty much 3 days straight. I don't think it amounted to much at the airport because it was barely above freezing the whole time there, but I had just enough elevation where we did get accumulating snow, and the best part was it snowed harder and harder with every goal Canada scored during the gold medal game in the Olympics.

So a repeat of that but 3 degrees colder would be nice.

That snow event was agonizing. Upper Westwood plateau had close to 2ft on the ground by the end, with 30cm+ for Como Lake hill, while the banana belt struggled with only about 15cm.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

And… here… we… go!

Screenshot 2024-01-26 at 16.17.01.png

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

The latest "good news" from EC:

2:03 PM PST Friday 26 January 2024

A series of storms bringing warm temperatures, elevated freezing levels and heavy rain will increase the potential for flooding, water pooling and possible landslides.

When: Saturday to Monday, possibly until mid week

Where: West, North, Inland and East Vancouver Island, Sunshine Coast, Howe Sound, Metro Vancouver - Central, Metro Vancouver - North Shore, Metro Vancouver - Northeast.

Hazards:
- Heavy rainfall combined with mountain snow melt will lead to enhanced responses in river systems and the potential for flooding
- Water pooling on roads
- Risk of landslides in vulnerable areas (such as burn scars) due to heavy rain falling on already very saturated surfaces
- Potential for falling tree branches and power outages due to strong winds and saturated soil
- Travel delays are possible

Confidence: There is high confidence in the warmth of the airmass and the extended rainfall event itself. There is low to moderate confidence in the exact location and timing of the heaviest rain.

Remarks:
A series of storms will bring periods of heavy rain to coastal BC. The very warm airmass will result in temperatures 5 to 10 degrees Celsius above seasonal.

Freezing levels will rise to approximately 2000 metres tonight. Through the day on Saturday the freezing levels will continue to rise to between 2500 to 3000 metres. These elevated freezing levels will persist into mid next week. The combination of elevated freezing levels and heavy rain will result in snow melt which will be in addition to the already heavy rainfall.

The heaviest rainfall is expected to occur between Sunday and Monday. There will be periods of lighter rain between the storms, but it is the cumulative effects of the storms that is likely to be impactful.

The summit of Mt. Baker is 3,288 m. It literally might rain on the summit of Mt. Baker. In January.

[Michael1]

The summit of Mt. Baker is 3,288 m. It literally might rain on the summit of Mt. Baker. In January.

That's bad news, not just for skiers, but also for the snow-pack!

[SouthSardiswx]

That's bad news, not just for skiers, but also for the snow-pack!

We're doomed.

[VanCitySouth]

The summit of Mt. Baker is 3,288 m. It literally might rain on the summit of Mt. Baker. In January.

[Michael1]

We're doomed.

Perhaps, but in a normal el nino year, March and April can be grand months for mountain snowfall.However, in our ever changing climate, I can't even hazard a guess at how it will play out this year.

[SouthSardiswx]

Perhaps, but in a normal el nino year, March and April can be grand months for mountain snowfall.However, in our ever changing climate, I can't even hazard a guess at how it will play out this year.

Any normalcy is off the table at this point l presume.

[Glacier]

Looks like t shirt and shorts weather for Monday!

Pineapple army is coming for us!

Nice... today was the coldest day all winter in Canada. -51.5C at Old Crow, Yukon...

[tyweather]

Looks like El Nino claimed a ski area in BC. Mount Timothy won't open this season.

https://www.powder.com/trending-news/mt ... -wont-open