January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

[Monty]

What is the island going to be like tomorrow, catching ferry heading to duncan in afternoon!
Thanks

Couple things to consider if you’re going to either Swartz Bay or Duke point. If you’re going to Swartz bay then you’ll have to drive the Malahat in the snow. It can be a bit dicey up there and if the semis start spinning out they might close the road with no great alternate route. Also they do have on occasion tire inspections at the bottom of the hill so if you don’t have good tires you could possibly be stopped.

Duke point is a longer ferry ride but a shorter drive to Duncan. Might actually be snowier up there than the Malahat but there are no big hills and traffic usually keeps moving.

[Feetz of Snow]

Didn’t see this earlier. Which ferry route are you taking? What brings you to duncan

Duke point
Basketball tournament

[Feetz of Snow]

Couple things to consider if you’re going to either Swartz Bay or Duke point. If you’re going to Swartz bay then you’ll have to drive the Malahat in the snow. It can be a bit dicey up there and if the semis start spinning out they might close the road with no great alternate route. Also they do have on occasion tire inspections at the bottom of the hill so if you don’t have good tires you could possibly be stopped.

Duke point is a longer ferry ride but a shorter drive to Duncan. Might actually be snowier up there than the Malahat but there are no big hills and traffic usually keeps moving.

Thanks so much
I really appreciate it .

[Feetz of Snow]

I can't give you any more info other than the Snowfall Warning from EC.

Good luck I hope you have a safe travels.

Thank you

[Monty]

Thanks so much
I really appreciate it .

I think Nanaimo to Duncan could get 5 to 10cm during the afternoon today. So do prepare to drive in the snow. But I think it’s good you’re not taking the Malahat, it can get pretty bad up there. Good luck in your basketball tournament.

[PortKells]

VSB is closed, I get a double snow day

[stuffradio]

Here are the latest weeklies

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-namer-z500_anom_30day-8214400.png

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-namer-t2m_c_anom_32day-8214400.png

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-namer-qpf_anom_32day_mm-8214400.png

[Typeing3]

Regarding the January curse once again. Old post of mine from December 2019 detailing January stats:

January stats for Vancouver. Which of these do you all think are achievable next month?

Last temp below -5C...Jan 14, 2017
Last temp below -8C...Jan 4, 2017
Last temp below -10C...Jan 5, 2004
Last temp below -12C...Jan 4, 2004
Last temp below -14C...Jan 6, 1993

Last monthly mean temp below 1.5C...1993
Last monthly mean temp below 1C...1993
Last monthly mean temp below 0.5C...1993
Last monthly mean temp below 0C...1993
Last monthly mean temp below -0.5C...1969

Last daily snowfall above 2cm...Jan 12, 2011
Last daily snowfall above 10cm...Jan 12, 2011
Last daily snowfall above 15cm...Jan 27, 2002
Last daily snowfall above 20cm...Jan 27, 2002
Last daily snowfall above 25cm...Jan 13, 1971

Last monthly snowfall above 10cm...2011
Last monthly snowfall above 20cm...2002
Last monthly snowfall above 30cm...2002
Last monthly snowfall above 40cm...1991
Last monthly snowfall above 50cm...1982

January stats at YVR as of today:


Last temp below -5C...Jan 16, 2024 (updated!)
Last temp below -8C...Jan 15, 2024 (updated!)
Last temp below -10C...Jan 13, 2024 (updated!)
Last temp below -12C...Jan 13, 2024 (updated!)
Last temp below -14C...Jan 6, 1993 (unchanged)

Last monthly mean temp below 1.5C...1993 (unchanged)
Last monthly mean temp below 1C...1993 (unchanged)
Last monthly mean temp below 0.5C...1993 (unchanged)
Last monthly mean temp below 0C...1993 (unchanged)
Last monthly mean temp below -0.5C...1969 (unchanged)

Last daily snowfall above 2cm...Jan 17, 2024 (updated!)
Last daily snowfall above 10cm...Jan 17, 2024 (updated!)
Last daily snowfall above 15cm...Jan 17, 2024 (updated!)
Last daily snowfall above 20cm...Jan 17, 2024 (updated!)
Last daily snowfall above 25cm...Jan 17, 2024 (updated!)

Last monthly snowfall above 10cm...2024 (updated!)
Last monthly snowfall above 20cm...2024 (updated!)
Last monthly snowfall above 30cm...2024 (updated!)
Last monthly snowfall above 40cm...1991 (unchanged)
Last monthly snowfall above 50cm...1982 (unchanged)

[Canada Goose]

VSB is closed, I get a double snow day

Me too. Champagne !

[wetcoast91]

Here are the latest weeklies

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-namer-z500_anom_30day-8214400.png
ecmwf-weeklies-avg-namer-t2m_c_anom_32day-8214400.png
ecmwf-weeklies-avg-namer-qpf_anom_32day_mm-8214400.png

Next 3 weeks probably skews this but yeah, it is going to be very wet for the west coast and the entire nation will torch over the next 10-14 days.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Regarding the January curse once again. Old post of mine from December 2019 detailing January stats:



January stats at YVR as of today:


Last temp below -5C...Jan 16, 2024 (updated!)
Last temp below -8C...Jan 15, 2024 (updated!)
Last temp below -10C...Jan 13, 2024 (updated!)
Last temp below -12C...Jan 13, 2024 (updated!)
Last temp below -14C...Jan 6, 1993 (unchanged)

Last monthly mean temp below 1.5C...1993 (unchanged)
Last monthly mean temp below 1C...1993 (unchanged)
Last monthly mean temp below 0.5C...1993 (unchanged)
Last monthly mean temp below 0C...1993 (unchanged)
Last monthly mean temp below -0.5C...1969 (unchanged)

Last daily snowfall above 2cm...Jan 17, 2024 (updated!)
Last daily snowfall above 10cm...Jan 17, 2024 (updated!)
Last daily snowfall above 15cm...Jan 17, 2024 (updated!)
Last daily snowfall above 20cm...Jan 17, 2024 (updated!)
Last daily snowfall above 25cm...Jan 17, 2024 (updated!)

Last monthly snowfall above 10cm...2024 (updated!)
Last monthly snowfall above 20cm...2024 (updated!)
Last monthly snowfall above 30cm...2024 (updated!)
Last monthly snowfall above 40cm...1991 (unchanged)
Last monthly snowfall above 50cm...1982 (unchanged)

I think the curse has been at least partially broken due to the snowfall and daily cold stats being refreshed. Regarding the monthly temperature means: can’t win ’em all, and next year maybe we can work on refreshing some of those. We’ve had a run of winning Februaries, and winning Decembers, so we’re sorta due for a run of exciting Januaries.

It took a string of losing Januaries to create the curse, and it will take a string of winning ones to fully break it.

[Weather101]

It's all good. I'm actually 32 believe it or not so I'm not shy of adult jokes. But the mods wouldn't want them to get carried away on here.

What????? I thought you were like 20 this whole time
Time flies lol

[Weather101]

Duke point
Basketball tournament

Be safe

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Guess I need to update this!

Based on this, we just experienced the 10th greatest snowfall since 1898, and the 3rd greatest January snowfall. Add to that the coldest daily January temperatures in about 40 years and it’s safe to say the January curse has been broken.

No, the monthly mean temperatures will not fall, but you can’t win ’em all. This month has been sufficiently excellent to break the curse. And I wouldn’t be surprised if we make progress on some of those monthly mean stats before the 2020’s end.

[Weather101]

30 cm of snow? A bit more snow today? A week of cold weather that some ponds actually froze to skate on?

Yeah, the curse for this year is broken. I'd go as far to say the curse in general is now broken.

The fact Vancouver has once again seen a snowstorm before Toronto, especially in January, is a win.


Our winters are so much different than the rest of Canada. We are a warm climate, so to get this in an El Nino is definitely a curse breaker.

If this was any other part of Canada they laugh because this is nothing to them, But for the west coast it was a major event.