January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

[Glacier]

Plenty of cold outbreaks during that period. These ones come to mind:

December 1980
December 1981
January 1982
December 1983
December 1984
January 1985
November 1985
February 1989
February 1990
December 1990
January 1991
December 1992
January 1993
December 1995
January 1996
December 1996
January 1997
December 1998

Tatlayoko Lake froze over in 1997 for the first time since 1972 or was it 1969? Good old Harry Haynes has been dead for a decade and a half now so can't ask him.

[Canada Goose]

Criteria for a cold month is definitely an average near or below 0c. 1993 was the last cold January.

But the unfortunate fact still remains that our last cold January was over 30 years ago, and that streak doesn't look to be ending this year.

Capture d’écran 2024-01-17 à 20.16.10.jpg

[Canada Goose]

There are a few other snowfalls over the period of record that don't look as "impressive" due to the daily cutoff. Certainly was the case with the February 1990 snowstorm which dropped a widespread 30-50cm across Metro Vancouver.

33.6 cm on Feb. 14-15, 1990.

[Typeing3]

33.6 cm on Feb. 14-15, 1990.

That was a big one. Was more like 40cm+ in our area. Burnaby mountain and Como Lake hill were ground zero. Probably closer to 45-50cm.

[AbbyJr]

I beg to differ.

Yeah our winters have most definitely trended warmer in the 21st century. Back in the 50's and 60's it was way more common to see the Polar Vortex dive into SWBC with a true arctic front. The Fraser Valley used to get extreme outflow events far more frequently back then. Now they seem to always be run of the mill. Even when we do get a true arctic front, we aren't getting those big damaging outflow winds nearly as often. We are clearly in a warmer phase of the climate and while I do believe it will trend colder again at some point, I have no idea when. But for now, we are stuck with 21st century standards meaning major arctic outflow events are less and less likely. That said, we have been lucky the past three winters (including this one) to get a taste of what used to be oh so common in the 50's and 60's.

[Radar]

Warm front dissipates over the LM and moderates the airmass. Most of us will be above 0C when the main moisture arrives by late evening which should be a brief slushing before we see plain old rain. Friday actually looks mild with some breaks in the sky.

No real heavy rains in the forecast so the slush could stay with us for another week.

How many days to melt 30cm of snow insulating 6" of frozen ground?

[Storm]

Can someone post the ICON snowfall map

[Snowman]

Ended up hitting the 30 cm mark here

Took these around 11:45 this morning. Maybe another couple of cm on top of that, but didn’t get a final measurement after I dug myself out.

[Typeing3]

Capture d’écran 2024-01-17 à 20.16.10.jpg

Sad...

Going further back:


Difficult to chose a prior proxy for YVR. For precip, Steveston is the evident choice as the orographic effects are quite pronounced at Vancouver PMO. For temperature, on the other hand, it seems like a toss up between Vancouver PMO and Steveston.

[SouthSardiswx]

Tatlayoko Lake froze over in 1997 for the first time since 1972 or was it 1969? Good old Harry Haynes has been dead for a decade and a half now so can't ask him.

Who? what? Glace!

[Catnip]

Can someone post the ICON snowfall map

F46670EF-FFB5-4CF3-93B0-05658B337EA3.png

[Storm]

F46670EF-FFB5-4CF3-93B0-05658B337EA3.png

This is very interesting. We will have to tomorrow morning run.

[SouthSardiswx]

That was a big one. Was more like 40cm+ in our area. Burnaby mountain and Como Lake hill were ground zero. Probably closer to 45-50cm.

Yup we talked about that year Trecords that Feb/90 period was cold/snowy l recall. I remember the night before a snowfall warning being issued for 30cm the night before l was so excited.
We were up on Austin heights Austin & Gatensbury.

[SouthSardiswx]

Ended up hitting the 30 cm mark here

Took these around 11:45 this morning. Maybe another couple of cm on top of that, but didn’t get a final measurement after I dug myself out.

Nice Snowmonster Kool your out Abbs way, what neighborhood?

[SouthSardiswx]

How many days to melt 30cm of snow insulating 6" of frozen ground?

666 hours and 66 seconds mini minion.