January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Rubus_Leucodermis
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

hrdps-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera_cm-5579200.png
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It's called clown range for a reason.
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AbbyJr
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

The GFS shows the most snow. Shows the snow continuing for most of the day. Not sure I buy it. Probably best to go with higher resolution models.

gfs-deterministic-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera_cm-5536000.png
hrdps-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera_cm-5525200.png
rgem-all-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera_cm-5525200.png
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nam-nest-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera_cm-5525200.png
nam-218-all-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera_cm-5525200.png
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Last edited by AbbyJr on Tue Jan 16, 2024 8:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Central Abbotsford
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2022/23 season snowfall: 76.8cm

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VanCitySouth
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by VanCitySouth »

Rubus_Leucodermis wrote: ↑Tue Jan 16, 2024 8:07 pm hrdps-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera_cm-5579200.png
Purple finally touching the strait on the HRDPS is like a balm to the soul. It was the model which worried me the most.
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Climo :cancel: 0 to 0 :14clown: GFS

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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

Latest HRRR shows moisture approaching the southern areas around 10-11. Keep in mind there’ll be Virga at first.
E99EFF9E-9027-458A-8421-6B3D32B68C5F.png
875E3B44-7D66-4979-84CA-1700B7FA8E7E.png
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*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

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#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

2022-2023 Snowfall - 114.5cm

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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Storm »

Catnip wrote: ↑Tue Jan 16, 2024 8:09 pm Latest HRRR shows moisture approaching the southern areas around 10-11. Keep in mind there’ll be Virga at first.

E99EFF9E-9027-458A-8421-6B3D32B68C5F.png
875E3B44-7D66-4979-84CA-1700B7FA8E7E.png
Based in this. Yes
CASHP - Precipitation Depiction, 8_04 PM.gif
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Storm »

For here.
Screenshot_20240116_201259_Weather.jpg
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

Storm wrote: ↑Tue Jan 16, 2024 8:13 pm For here.
Screenshot_20240116_201259_Weather.jpg
Mine says 27cm. 8-)

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2022-2023 Snowfall - 114.5cm

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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Granddaddyp2233 »

Right on the door step
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Rubus_Leucodermis
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

Storm wrote: ↑Tue Jan 16, 2024 8:13 pm For here.
Screenshot_20240116_201259_Weather.jpg
Mine says 240 mm.
It's called clown range for a reason.
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Canada Goose »

Honestly, I'd be happy with 20 cm. 15 cm would be a bust and 25 cm would be a boom. ©Tyler
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Nordelian »

I would caution using GFS at this range. It has a really coarse resolution and is going to give higher totals as a result.

HRDPS, HRRR and 3 km NAM are the models I'd put the most weight in.
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Weatherhead2 »

Flurries are happening 😎
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AbbyJr
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Nordelian wrote: ↑Tue Jan 16, 2024 8:25 pm I would caution using GFS at this range. It has a really coarse resolution and is going to give higher totals as a result.

HRDPS, HRRR and 3 km NAM are the models I'd put the most weight in.
Agreed, although sometimes higher resolution models don't give a better forecast. There are a lot of factors. The RGEM is good too.
Central Abbotsford
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2022/23 season snowfall: 76.8cm

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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

Weatherhead2 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 16, 2024 8:29 pm Flurries are happening 😎
Nice. Nothing here yet. Must be close.
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Weather101 »

I stick with my perdition but man these temps are getting sketchy if you live sea level
All about them Cowboys !!! 🤠 🤠
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