January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

[PortKells]

You sure?

He lives in Richmond

[AbbyJr]

The models are all in lockstep. Haven't seen that too often.

Yeah if tonight's Euro comes in strong I think it's a lock. That or pretty much every weather model is wrong. While possible, it's highly unlikely.

[Weather101]

You sure?

In Richmond ? 100 percent sure

Other areas ? I say more like 10 to 20.

[Weather101]

This sure is bad timing. My parents are going into Vancouver for a concert Thursday night. They will be really disappointed if it gets cancelled or they can't get in. As much as I love this weather, I will feel really sad for them if they are not able to go to the concert. Just awful timing.

Off topic but what concert is it ?

[WeatherPro]

SNOWFALL WARNING!!

I'm issuing the snowfall warning now because even with the least likely scenario, there is going to be enough snow to cause problems everywhere.

EC will issue the snowfall warning after analyzing the recent runs from tonight, and will issue tonight or first thing in the morning. The CORRECT thing to do is issue it TONIGHT so people go to work Tues prepared if they are coming home late. Especially if light snow starts in the late afternoon because we will get a repeat of what happened on Thursday and you see what little snow did to cause problems. Now the ground is even MORE frozen, so any melting on the roads will be turned to ice.

Model runs today so far actually IMPROVED the snow forecast, so it keeps trending in the right direction for snow lovers.

Light snow could develop tomorrow late afternoon before changing to steady snow in the evening and continuing Wednesday with heavy snow. Snow will continue Wed and possibly until Thursday morning the further east and higher up you are. This is what it looks like if things go in the right direction. At this point the right direction is at a higher percentage.

Watch any models tonight.

Widespread snowfall!
Snow will blanket the entire lower corner of BC from the island to the fraser valley.
Snowfall amounts will range anywhere from 5cm at ocean level Tsawwassen, and I mean RIGHT at or on the ocean, to 30cm inland around Abbotsford to Hope. Variable amounts depending on elevation. Burnaby mountain 20 - 30cm. Other areas like Coquitlam and Surrey 20 - 25cm and Vancouver up to 15 to 20cm. Richmond up to 10 to 15cm.

Overall this system may actually over-perform in some areas. As it seems to be heading in that direction.

Now, could this bust? Well it is coastal Lower Mainland, the hardest place in Canada to forecast snow, so there is always a percentage. HOWEVER, if this busts, it will only be in terms of accumulation. So rather than the higher amounts I stated, you might cut them in half. Still not bad for some areas.

Blizzard? Not really. Perhaps Chilliwack and east will see blizzard like conditions where the wind is still blowing, but the outflow has died off for Metro Vancouver proper. Mind you, the snow will start off extremely dry, so it wont take much to blow around and I suspect with the front passing there will be some wind. We shall see if the outflow gets dragged out west a bit.

So many variables.

Thursday afternoon may see freezing rain, but it's not clear yet exactly if and where that transition will be. Of course the Fraser valley has the highest chances of persistent freezing rain Thursday into the evening. Overnight? Friday? Will temps cool a bit again?

I suspect there will be snow cover on the ground for quite a while after this dump.

Cold air reload, looks possible on some models. Or at least keeping a cool trend. Although things may moderate over the weekend.

A lot going on, many dynamics. No forecaster will get this bang on, but the ballpark is pretty good right now.
A major widespread snowfall is coming starting tomorrow. Enjoy it!
Don't go out on the roads. Work from home. Don't get caught on the bridges for 6 hours.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Models are all saying about 20 cm IMBY, but then there is the phantom snow issue, so I am expecting more like 10–15 cm.

[WeatherPro]

In Richmond ? 100 percent sure

I'm not so sure, Richmond could get 10cm for sure out of this.

[Weather101]

SNOWFALL WARNING!!

I'm issuing the snowfall warning now because even with the least likely scenario, there is going to be enough snow to cause problems everywhere.

EC will issue the snowfall warning after analyzing the recent runs from tonight, and will issue tonight or first thing in the morning. The CORRECT thing to do is issue it TONIGHT so people go to work Tues prepared if they are coming home late. Especially if light snow starts in the late afternoon because we will get a repeat of what happened on Thursday and you see what little snow did to cause problems. Now the ground is even MORE frozen, so any melting on the roads will be turned to ice.

Model runs today so far actually IMPROVED the snow forecast, so it keeps trending in the right direction for snow lovers.

Light snow could develop tomorrow late afternoon before changing to steady snow in the evening and continuing Wednesday with heavy snow. Snow will continue Wed and possibly until Thursday morning the further east and higher up you are. This is what it looks like if things go in the right direction. At this point the right direction is at a higher percentage.

Watch any models tonight.

Widespread snowfall!
Snow will blanket the entire lower corner of BC from the island to the fraser valley.
Snowfall amounts will range anywhere from 5cm at ocean level Tsawwassen, and I mean RIGHT at or on the ocean, to 30cm inland around Abbotsford to Hope. Variable amounts depending on elevation. Burnaby mountain 20 - 30cm. Other areas like Coquitlam and Surrey 20 - 25cm and Vancouver up to 15 to 20cm. Richmond up to 15cm.

Overall this system may actually over-perform in some areas. As it seems to be heading in that direction.

Now, could this bust? Well it is coastal Lower Mainland, the hardest place in Canada to forecast snow, so there is always a percentage. HOWEVER, if this busts, it will only be in terms of accumulation. So rather than the higher amounts I stated, you might cut them in half. Still not bad for some areas.

Blizzard? Not really. Perhaps Chilliwack and east will see blizzard like conditions where the wind is still blowing, but the outflow has died off for Metro Vancouver proper. Mind you, the snow will start off extremely dry, so it wont take much to blow around and I suspect with the front passing there will be some wind. We shall see if the outflow gets dragged out west a bit.

So many variables.

Thursday afternoon may see freezing rain, but it's not clear yet exactly if and where that transition will be. Of course the Fraser valley has the highest chances of persistent freezing rain Thursday into the evening. Overnight? Friday? Will temps cool a bit again?

I suspect there will be snow cover on the ground for quite a while after this dump.

Cold air reload, looks possible on some models. Or at least keeping a cool trend. Although things may moderate over the weekend.

A lot going on, many dynamics. No forecaster will get this bang on, but the ballpark is pretty good right now.
A major widespread snowfall is coming starting tomorrow. Enjoy it!
Don't go out on the roads. Work from home. Don't get caught on the bridges for 6 hours.

Thanks for the update

And yeah things will definitely moderate on the weekend

[Weather101]

I'm not so sure, Richmond could get 10cm for sure out of this.

Richmond will probably be around 5 to 10 cm range for sure.

[WeatherPro]

Models are all saying about 20 cm IMBY, but then there is the phantom snow issue, so I am expecting more like 10–15 cm.

There is always this issue with being so close to the mountains, but all models are in agreement moreso than usual, but you never know.

[WeatherPro]

Hi WeatherPro, big fan of yours. What's your thoughts on freezing rain amounts?

Fraser Valley could see about half an inch of ice cover if this bad scenario materializes. (Worst Case)

[AbbyJr]

Screenshot 2024-01-15 at 7.44.32 PM.png

[PortKells]

Hrdps is coming out. Much better resolution, EC will probably blast out something right after. You would hope anyways.

[VanCitySouth]

Models are all saying about 20 cm IMBY, but then there is the phantom snow issue, so I am expecting more like 10–15 cm.

I personally think we'll be closer to 15 than 10. Eastern suburbs definitely have a chance at 20+

[Weather101]

Hmmmmm