January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Michael1
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Michael1 »

temp is +.06 here. already above forecast high. We'll see how this plays out
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Weather101 »

wetcoast91 wrote: Mon Jan 15, 2024 6:33 am Media: Bitterly cold to hang around Southern Ontario

Reality: Temps are only a few degrees below normal

:lol:
I mean, to be fair, Toronto's average high for this time of year is -2c
It's currently -10c with the day ending.

That's a whole 8c below normal.
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

:dancepine: :dance: :dancepine:
814temp.new.gif
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It's called clown range for a reason.
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

And for what it’s worth, the Cliff Mass model.
wa_snow24.72.0000.png
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It's called clown range for a reason.
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by VanCitySouth »

Rubus_Leucodermis wrote: Mon Jan 15, 2024 11:23 am And for what it’s worth, the Cliff Mass model.

wa_snow24.72.0000.png
Cliff Mass model might as well be the NFS when it comes to snow, it's always so stingy LOL
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by VanCitySouth »

Would be very surprised if YVR managed to stay below 0 this afternoon. However, Grouse Mountain is reporting -5.5C right now, Cypress is -5, and Seymour is -3, so it seems like the upper levels are still quite cool.
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by John »

Tyler is on team snow
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

VanCitySouth wrote: Mon Jan 15, 2024 11:24 am Cliff Mass model might as well be the NFS when it comes to snow, it's always so stingy LOL
I have nothing good to say about Cliff Mass.
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by VanCitySouth »

wetcoast91 wrote: Mon Jan 15, 2024 11:53 am I have nothing good to say about Cliff Mass.
That's very fair
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Climo :cancel: 0 to 0 :14clown: GFS

Season total: 1 trace (Teflon on Nov 18)
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

"Snowpack" update:
thumbnail_IMG_0400.jpg
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*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

:catnip: :alert:

#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by ClaytonWx »

first time above freezing since Thursday and my temp still skyrocketing. +4C over this time yesterday
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

Rubus_Leucodermis wrote: Mon Jan 15, 2024 8:24 am Once you discount the “snow” the Euro shows falling with 925 mbar temps above freezing, there isn’t much left at the surface. Maybe a slushy cm or two.
It will depend on the thickness of that warm layer and dew points in that layer. It can snow when 925s are above freezing but you end up with low ratio stuff
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Storm »

Monty wrote: Mon Jan 15, 2024 12:19 pm It will depend on the thickness of that warm layer and dew points in that layer. It can snow when 925s are above freezing but you end up with low ratio stuff
Yeah. Mark Madriga said this morning substantial snow to be expected, especially the North of the river.
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by VanCitySouth »

NAM caved
2024-25 season stats:
Climo :cancel: 0 to 0 :14clown: GFS

Season total: 1 trace (Teflon on Nov 18)
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

wetcoast91 wrote: Mon Jan 15, 2024 11:53 am I have nothing good to say about Cliff Mass.
I saw a quote from him posted down south that said “the upper levels were too warm for freezing rain”. That doesn’t even make sense.
North end of Shawnigan Lake. Southern Vancouver island. 500ft
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