January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

[PortKells]

Hot off the press


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Even a little more Thursday before the bad stuff takes over.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

Hot off the press


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Beat me to it! Definitely a trend in the snowier direction. Even the Kuchera may be somewhat overstated as based on the 925 mbar temps it is likely mix with rain at times late Wednesday. Still would probably be good for 10+ cm in most areas.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

My bad, Wednesday morning that it’s marginal. Though of interest that it’s not saturated where it’s above 0˚C.

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[Storm]

Lots of snowmaking in Whistler, the only problem snow doesn't fall but lifts like a fog and get blown.

[Abby_wx]

Overnight low of -8.5c.

Low only -7.4C here.

[Monty]

Canadian mesoscale models seem a little more robust with the trough from the north and hence a little more suppressed with the southern storm. Too close to call at this point. East valley will get nailed and probably central and northern east island. I’m still leaning a bit to the more suppressed scenarios but the Euro suggests a mix with freezing rain and ice pellets over southern sections of the south coast could limit snow ratios and totals

[wetcoast91]

Warmth blows into the East.

[Forrest Gump]

It’s looking more and more likely that this will be
A blizzard and it won’t warm above zero till Saturday!

1996? Bring in the army?

[AbbyJr]

Canadian mesoscale models seem a little more robust with the trough from the north and hence a little more suppressed with the southern storm. Too close to call at this point. East valley will get nailed and probably central and northern east island. I’m still leaning a bit to the more suppressed scenarios but the Euro suggests a mix with freezing rain and ice pellets over southern sections of the south coast could limit snow ratios and totals

The Euro also seems to have a warm bias at least as of recent. It's been too warm for much of this cold snap. Something to consider.

[AbbyJr]

1996? Bring in the army?

Highly unlikely this matches the 1996 blizzard but this is looking very good for strong El Niño standards.

[wetcoast91]

Highly unlikely this matches the 1996 blizzard but this is looking very good for strong El Niño standards.

John did predict -18C! He has now predicted another 1996.

In John we trust!

[Catnip]

John did predict -18C! He has now predicted another 1996.

In John we trust!

[Storm]

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[Weather101]

[Weather101]

Snowstorm On The Horizon!!

Well, let's take a stab at this:

This Tuesday/Wednesday have a VERY high chance of delivering a high impact widespread snowfall!
Tonight's models looked more favourable for this to occur. At least as of now, trends are looking good for snow lovers.
We are still in dicey territory though, a few adjustments here and there in tomorrows runs could be better or worse.

If better: You could see 25cm or more across the LM and at higher elevations.
If worse: 10cm or so at higher elevations.
Snow will fall at ALL elevations for sure, and even at sea level there should be high amounts.

Pros: Ground is now frozen, lakes and rivers have ice. Helpful for cooling the area and preventing snow melt.
Cons: Cold air gets trapped at surface and upper levels warm causing freezing rain.

Freezing rain possibility: There is a chance coming out of this snowfall to see freezing rain especially the further east you go into the valley. Hopefully this solution will not come to be.

If the models improve, look to see straight snow and no freezing rain on the first system.

Thursday: Right now, very hard to tell, again, it might just be cold enough for snow, with a higher chance of freezing rain coming out, and then some moderation, however there appears possible another slight reload of colder air, so perhaps a short period of slightly above freezing and then back to cooler weather and further chances of flurries.

I think if you are lucky you will get the snow, and then celebrate. I imagine after this period, things may warm up again, after all, it's El Ninio. But then again, this cold outbreak should not have happened this year, so mother nature does as she wants especially when humans think they are smarter.

So, watch the run tomorrow, hopefully even better, enjoy the snow Tuesday evening/Wednesday, and then see how things go from there. I imagine it will be unpredictable as always. Never easy. But it WILL snow for all at least this time.

I'll check back tomorrow to see if blizzard like conditions may prevail.

25 plus cm? Not happening lol