January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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VanCitySouth
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by VanCitySouth »

Rubus_Leucodermis wrote: Mon Jan 15, 2024 8:11 am GFS and GEM say a big snow is on its way.

Euro and NAM 3km say not so much (maybe 5cm of glop in favoured areas).

NAM 3km has a big ice storm for the Valley and Whatcom County, which is concerning because as a mesoscale model it is the one likely to better pick up on the sort of minor Fraser outflow (which it is calling for) that could create such a scenario.

If the HRDPS concurs (still not inside its window yet) it will be time to worry about an ice storm.
Coming into view on HRDPS now, and it appears it's solidly in the snow camp:

HRDPS.PNG
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2024-25 season stats:
Climo :cancel: 0 to 0 :14clown: GFS

Season total: 1 trace (Teflon on Nov 18)
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Storm »

VanCitySouth wrote: Mon Jan 15, 2024 8:37 am Coming into view on HRDPS now, and it appears it's solidly in the snow camp:


HRDPS.PNG
hrdps_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_48.png
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Storm wrote: Mon Jan 15, 2024 8:44 am hrdps_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_48.png
I love these overnight snowfalls because it means we have to shovel 20+cm first thing in the morning and break our backs! Think joint and muscle pains and body soreness c'mon!!! :clap:

Need to call Catnips plow services.
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

VanCitySouth wrote: Mon Jan 15, 2024 8:37 am Coming into view on HRDPS now, and it appears it's solidly in the snow camp:


HRDPS.PNG
So it is! The 12Z had not finished running when I typed the post you are responding to.

This is just the leading hours of the event, of course. More to be revealed when the 18Z runs.
hrdps-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera_cm-5492800.png
hrdps-vancouverski-instant_ptype_3hr_mm-5492800.png
hrdps-vancouverski-t2m_c-5492800.png
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It's called clown range for a reason.
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by John »

It’s looking more and more likely that this will be
A blizzard and it won’t warm above zero till Saturday!
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by VanCitySouth »

I see the NWS writeup starting to acknowledge Whatcom remaining snowy/cold for longer:
That said, any overrunning moisture into the cooler air
mass could lead to a quick accumulation of a few inches of snow
first. This would be most likely in the lowland of Whatcom County
where colder air may hold on a bit longer.
2024-25 season stats:
Climo :cancel: 0 to 0 :14clown: GFS

Season total: 1 trace (Teflon on Nov 18)
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

wetcoast91 wrote: Mon Jan 15, 2024 8:53 am I love these overnight snowfalls because it means we have to shovel 20+cm first thing in the morning and break our backs! Think joint and muscle pains and body soreness c'mon!!! :clap:

Need to call Catnips plow services.
I offered up a good solution a few days ago Neetz.

:wave: :wave:

Image
*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

:catnip: :alert:

#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

2022-2023 Snowfall - 114.5cm

Wx Stn: https://tinyurl.com/yxervg27
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Pumpkin Seed »

Any idea around what time the snow will start tomorrow evening? Wednesday morning I have an appointment in North Vancouver up in the hill. I think I can handle few cm on the road, but 10cm will be my limitation. Should I re schedule for later this week?
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

Pumpkin Seed wrote: Mon Jan 15, 2024 9:26 am Any idea around what time the snow will start tomorrow evening? Wednesday morning I have an appointment in North Vancouver up in the hill. I think I can handle few cm on the road, but 10cm will be my limitation. Should I re schedule for later this week?
I would say odds favour something wintry by that point, probably not 10 cm, at least not by then (but maybe by the time your appointment ends if the snowier models verify).

We should have a much better idea tonight once all the 18Z runs come in.
Last edited by Rubus_Leucodermis on Mon Jan 15, 2024 9:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by stuffradio »

wetcoast91 wrote: Mon Jan 15, 2024 8:53 am I love these overnight snowfalls because it means we have to shovel 20+cm first thing in the morning and break our backs! Think joint and muscle pains and body soreness c'mon!!! :clap:

Need to call Catnips plow services.
What do you mean? The hardcores stay up all night and shovel every hour on the hour! ;)
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by John »

Storm in the house!!

He will
Be here for big euro run!
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Storm »

John wrote: Mon Jan 15, 2024 9:44 am Storm in the house!!

He will
Be here for big euro run!
Up in Whistler this morning and it's cold and beautiful.
20240115_094653.jpg
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by VanCitySouth »

stuffradio wrote: Mon Jan 15, 2024 9:42 am What do you mean? The hardcores stay up all night and shovel every hour on the hour! ;)
I don't shovel every hour on the hour I just measure LOL
2024-25 season stats:
Climo :cancel: 0 to 0 :14clown: GFS

Season total: 1 trace (Teflon on Nov 18)
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Catnip »

Overnight low of -8.5c.
*Maps are posted for discussion/entertainment purposes only, and not because I necessarily believe them to be true.

:catnip: :alert:

#teamsnow #surprises #beginningofFEB #FEB

2022-2023 Snowfall - 114.5cm

Wx Stn: https://tinyurl.com/yxervg27
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

:alert: Hot off the press :alert:

ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-total_snow_10to1_cm-5543200.png
ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera_cm-5546800.png
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