January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

[wetcoast91]

You are loosing your touch.

Can't deny the trends which keep the reinforcing modified arctic air bottled up further north. We are in a decent spot on this run....but....

[AbbyJr]

I thought we needed -2 for snow to be honest. But maybe it's a little different with cold air entrenched.

I understood that all we need is all layers to be at or below freezing for snow. But -2C is a much safer outcome. Residue arctic air also helps.

[AbbyJr]

Summary of the Euro versus the GEM:

The Euro keeps the precipitation as snow as the low stays south. The GEM, on the other hand, curves the low north resulting in a wintry mix.

ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-instant_ptype_6hr_mm-5525200.png

gem-all-vancouverski-instant_ptype_6hr_mm-5525200.png

[wetcoast91]

Summary of the Euro versus the GEM:

The Euro keeps the precipitation as snow as the low stays south. The GEM, on the other hand, curves the low north resulting in a wintry mix.


ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-instant_ptype_6hr_mm-5525200.png

gem-all-vancouverski-instant_ptype_6hr_mm-5525200.png

"Good" news is a late week ice storm is looking less likely as either scenario with the 1st system brings a moderating onshore wind at the surface behind the cold front.

[Michael1]

Our daytime high has already gone above the forecast high. I think we might get above freezing here, at sometime today. The retreat of the arctic air on this part of the upland has been pretty fast.

[Weather101]

How was the Toronto snowmaggedon? I heard the Leafs had an unfortunate Avalanche situation yesterday

The snow that came through for 2 hours was the most intense snow I've ever seen in my life. Cloud to ground lightning as well. Couldn't see anything out the window. That being said, it didn't accumulate as much as was expected in some areas. But some areas got nailed.

Right now, the lake effect snow machine is firing in the snow belts. Some areas might see 50 cm. Where I am, its light flurries maybe 2 to 5 cm in the next day

[AbbyJr]

The 12Z Euro ensembles favour the south track versus the northerly shown on the GEM. It's nice to have the Euro on our side.

78hrecmwf-ensemble-avg-albertabc-mslp_with_low_locs-5514400.png

84ecmwf-ensemble-avg-albertabc-mslp_with_low_locs-5536000.png

[Weather101]

I'm thinking brief snow to freezing rain then just plain old rain.

[AbbyJr]

I'm thinking brief snow to freezing rain then just plain old rain.

Hope not.

[AbbyJr]

2024011400_054@007_E1_yxx_I_NAEFS@EPSGRAMS_tt@surf@nt@pr@ws@surf_360.png

[PortKells]

The snow that came through for 2 hours was the most intense snow I've ever seen in my life. Cloud to ground lightning as well. Couldn't see anything out the window. That being said, it didn't accumulate as much as was expected in some areas. But some areas got nailed.

Right now, the lake effect snow machine is firing in the snow belts. Some areas might see 50 cm. Where I am, its light flurries maybe 2 to 5 cm in the next day

Sounds pretty awesome. Are you in the downtown section near the Lake or a little ways away?

[PortKells]

The 12Z Euro ensembles favour the south track versus the northerly shown on the GEM. It's nice to have the Euro on our side.


78hrecmwf-ensemble-avg-albertabc-mslp_with_low_locs-5514400.png

84ecmwf-ensemble-avg-albertabc-mslp_with_low_locs-5536000.png

The euro looks a lot more consistent. The GEM has one that goes north of Haida Gwaii and then some into Montana.

[AbbyJr]

The euro looks a lot more consistent. The GEM has one that goes north of Haida Gwaii and then some into Montana.

While I'm obviously biased, it's usually best to side with the Euro, especially when it's been consistent. Time will tell but I'm optimistic.

[Typeing3]

I thought we needed -2 for snow to be honest. But maybe it's a little different with cold air entrenched.

As long as the entire column is below freezing we can see snow at the surface.

[Typeing3]

Overnight low of -11.3c

Low of -11.5c in east Coquitlam. Looks like a slight inversion beginning to set up at night with the warming upper levels.

Currently -5.0c. Highs will probably be in the -3c/-2c range today given how fast the temp is shooting up.