January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Storm
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Storm »

PortKells wrote: ↑Sun Jan 14, 2024 8:05 am The Gem joins in the ice party. Aaaaand its over. Ok its not over but it feels dire.
Even if we can get away from the ZR with the first one, we won't escape it with the second one. Slight shift of the low landfall makes all the difference.
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

PortKells wrote: ↑Sun Jan 14, 2024 8:05 am The Gem joins in the ice party. Aaaaand its over. Ok its not over but it feels dire.
Southern stream wins out aloft! I think models are again overdoing the warmup at the surface though so Fraser Valley will see a ton of ice.
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Can someone post the ZR maps?
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Storm »

Anyone has 6z Euro?
ecmwf_T850_nwus_29-1.png
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

Any more trending north and it's a dud.
ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-snow_24hr_kuchera_cm-5536000.png
gfs-deterministic-vancouverski-snow_24hr_kuchera_cm-5568400.png
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It's called clown range for a reason.
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

wetcoast91 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 14, 2024 8:10 am Southern stream wins out aloft! I think models are again overdoing the warmup at the surface though so Fraser Valley will see a ton of ice.
The models are definitely overdoing the warmup at the surface. This could be a major ice storm out here.
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Storm wrote: ↑Sun Jan 14, 2024 8:08 am Even if we can get away from the ZR with the first one, we won't escape it with the second one. Slight shift of the low landfall makes all the difference.
Still time for a shift in the low's track. All it takes is a slight shift to get back into the snowy solution.
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

Ice maps. Goofus doesn't have much early in the week but delivers a widespread ice storm later. Euro has an earlier ice storm.
ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-frzr_total_mm-5536000.png
gfs-deterministic-vancouverski-frzr_total_mm-5536000.png
gfs-deterministic-vancouverski-frzr_total_mm-5935600.png
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It's called clown range for a reason.
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

:bang: :bang: :bang: Well at least I'll be able to track power outages on BC Hydro's website. :roll: :lol:

gem-all-vancouverski-frzr_total_mm-5676400.png
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

Ice pellets for metro Vancouver, too. Looks like a wintry mix storm, not a snowstorm.
ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-sleet_total_mm-5536000.png
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

gem-all-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera_cm-5611600.png
gem-all-vancouverski-total_snow_10to1_cm-5611600.png
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2022/23 season snowfall: 76.8cm

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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by John »

AbbyJr wrote: ↑Sun Jan 14, 2024 8:38 am gem-all-vancouverski-total_snow_kuchera_cm-5611600.png

gem-all-vancouverski-total_snow_10to1_cm-5611600.png
That’s a lot of snow
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

The GEM is clearly having problems with precipitation type. Shows snow and freezing rain at the same time. :roll: :lol:

Screenshot 2024-01-14 at 8.46.21 AM.png
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Central Abbotsford
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2022/23 season snowfall: 76.8cm

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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Abby_wx »

Low -11.1C

EC ended the arctic outflow warning.
:dragon:

Fall/Winter 2023/24
Low min: -16.6C (Jan 12th)
Low max: -9.9C (Jan 12th)
Snowfall: 8.0 cm
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Re: January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Radar »

John wrote: ↑Sun Jan 14, 2024 8:00 am Big dump of snow is inevitable with this much cold air!
I haven’t seen big dumps from over running events in years. Always freezing rain. Maybe the wack will get snow but Abby will be rain.
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