January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

[Catnip]

It gets hung up in the canyon by the looks of it.

Need to open up that canyon a bit!

[Weather101]

Forget hawk vs flamingo, when the model wars begin it's Storm vs Nito.

[Storm]

Forget hawk vs flamingo, when the model wars begin it's Storm vs Nito.

Nah, Nito is right. It will slide East, that is just how it goes.
A slushy inch or itwo is a win this winter.

[Bonovox]

To be fair, everything eventually slides east.

[PortKells]

To be fair, everything eventually slides east.

To be even more fair, things haven’t really slid east in several winters and we would be due for it if being due was actually a thing in weather.

The east had been absolutely torching since dec 2017 or so.

[Bonovox]

To be even more fair, things haven’t really slid east in several winters and we would be due for it if being due was actually a thing in weather.

The east had been absolutely torching since dec 2017 or so.

Yes, but my point is it all has to slide east at some point. Just a question of if we get in on the action before it does.

[Bonovox]

18z ICON improved over the 12z for Sunday.

[Catnip]

Yes, but my point is it all has to slide east at some point. Just a question of if we get in on the action before it does.

Just to add... sliding East isn't always a bad outcome in the end. I do enjoy it when we get the initial blast with a decent snowfall. Then ridge moves overhead, cold air moves east, but we hold on to the "fake cold", keeping it cool and preserving snowfall with the relatively low dew points.

[Typeing3]

To be even more fair, things haven’t really slid east in several winters and we would be due for it if being due was actually a thing in weather.

The east had been absolutely torching since dec 2017 or so.

You're forgetting February 2021.

[AbbyJr]

So I was looking back at the historical data for December 2021 and that arctic blast at the end of the month was sure impressive by current standards. For example, on December 27, 2021, Abbotsford (YXX) recorded a daily high of -11.8C and a low of -15.6C.

I'd have to do some digging but I don't remember the last time since December 1968 that YXX has recorded a daily high below -10C.
It was sure an impressive arctic airmass and one of the coldest we've seen in a long time. December 2008 was also cold but the highlight that month was the snow. It was much snowier in comparison to the December 2021 arctic blast. But both were very cold and snowy so no complaints.

Would be nice to score some big cold and snow this month but my expectations are rather low. Maybe some snow and modified arctic air?

[AbbyJr]

You're forgetting February 2021.

That one felt like a total bust since many of the models including the Euro initially showed a classic arctic front. Unfortunately, later runs had the coldest air sliding east. But given that the Euro was on board for a while gave me some hope. At least it got cold but it was nothing noteworthy.

[Antares]

Not much snow here yet. Have less than an inch on the ground right now.

[PortKells]

You're forgetting February 2021.

Not the greatest example IMO, a short lived blast that was extremely cold but if I remember correctly was worse in the south central USA/Canada than in the east. When I talk about the east I'm thinking far east coast based. I suppose sliding east usually would mean sliding to the centre of the continent so maybe I'm wrong anways.

[PortKells]

That one felt like a total bust since many of the models including the Euro initially showed a classic arctic front. Unfortunately, later runs had the coldest air sliding east. But given that the Euro was on board for a while gave me some hope. At least it got cold but it was nothing noteworthy.

He was using it more as an example where an arctic blast that was modelled as ours slid east. That one definitely left a sour taste here and I'm glad we've been nailed since then to forget about it. Seattle got a major overrunning snowstorm out of it, kind of the polar opposite of December 2022.

[PortKells]

18z ICON improved over the 12z for Sunday.

Definitely not a Picasso but probably good enough.