January 2024 Forecasts and Discussions

[Weather101]

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He's honestly a weirdo.

[Catnip]

Looks like the 18z GFS has really weakened the system for Monday.

[SouthSardiswx]

Looks like the 18z GFS has really weakened the system for Monday.

It's over Catonarack

[Storm]

Looks like the 18z GFS has really weakened the system for Monday.

GFS needs to get retired completely.

[Catnip]

GFS needs to get retired completely.

It seems to be so different each run. This could be a case of it trying to resolve the upcoming pattern change as well. Or perhaps it needs a redo.

I feel like it performed better before the last upgrade... not sure if I'm just imagining things.

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[Storm]

It seems to be so different each run. This could be a case of it trying to resolve the upcoming pattern change as well. Or perhaps it needs a redo.

I feel like it performed better before the last upgrade... not sure if I'm just imagining things.



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Old GFS was much better handling pattern change.

[wetcoast91]

It seems to be so different each run. This could be a case of it trying to resolve the upcoming pattern change as well. Or perhaps it needs a redo.

I feel like it performed better before the last upgrade... not sure if I'm just imagining things.



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EL NITO!

[AbbyJr]

Old GFS was much better handling pattern change.

The GFS is simply bad. Period. Anyone who thought those crazy cold runs it showed would verify is wishcasting. As I said earlier, a colder period with some low elevation snow is likely, but the more reliable Euro and GEM ensembles only have a few members showing a legit arctic blast.

[Catnip]

The GFS is simply bad. Period. Anyone who thought those crazy cold runs it showed would verify is wishcasting. As I said earlier, a colder period with some low elevation snow is likely, but the more reliable Euro and GEM ensembles only have a few members showing a legit arctic blast.

Yup.

Pretty sure no one on here believed they would come to fruition.... at least I hope not!

Although I'm still holding out some hope that something pops up as we get closer into the month.

Cooler period with low elevation snow is honestly a good outcome for January during El Torcho... heck even during a Nina year.

Maybe next year will be redemption time for January.

[wetcoast91]

Yup.

Pretty sure no one on here believed they would come to fruition.... at least I hope not!

Although I'm still holding out some hope that something pops up as we get closer into the month.

Cooler period with low elevation snow is honestly a good outcome for January during El Torcho... heck even during a Nina year.

Maybe next year will be redemption time for January.

A slushy chance of snow down to 200m followed by a modified arctic airmass and then ending up in a splitty/ridgy period is pretty much the expected outcome.

Kind of fitting how the 18z GFS finishes by defaulting back to the warm North American pattern again.

[Storm]

The GFS is simply bad. Period. Anyone who thought those crazy cold runs it showed would verify is wishcasting. As I said earlier, a colder period with some low elevation snow is likely, but the more reliable Euro and GEM ensembles only have a few members showing a legit arctic blast.

Like I said, this model needs to go to . That's why I am learning towards the ICON. German engineering at it's best.

[Storm]

This pretty much sums it up. Russ is back.

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[SouthSardiswx]

This pretty much sums it up. Russ is back.
Screenshot_20240102_155430_X.jpgScreenshot_20240102_155435_X.jpg

It gets hung up in the canyon by the looks of it.

[Storm]

It gets hung up in the canyon by the looks of it.

We need to look at the big picture this far out. 18z GEFS better than 12z.

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[VanCitySouth]

Forget hawk vs flamingo, when the model wars begin it's Storm vs Nito.