December 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

[VanCitySouth]

Sorry everyone (especially Rubes) my internet glitched and I hit submit too many times in frustration and now I've sent the same reply three times.

[Catnip]

Sorry everyone (especially Rubes) my internet glitched and I hit submit too many times in frustration and now I've sent the same reply three times.

I think it was the forum. It glitched for me too and kept giving errors.

I’ll clean up the posts, no worries.

[Bonovox]

It’s going to snow tomorrow. It likely won’t stick. But, I still think that is pretty darn cool.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

It’s going to snow tomorrow. It likely won’t stick. But, I still think that is pretty darn cool.

In an El Niño winter, one must take whatever one can get.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

In HRDPS we trust. Flakes flying but not necessarily accumulating.

I think both of us are in that little patch of blue.

[SouthSardiswx]

I think both of us are in that little patch of blue.

Not much room for error there Rubes no doubt.

[SouthSardiswx]

In an El Niño winter, one must take whatever one can get.

Not much excitement on the forum l guess the reality of a dudster winter has set in. You may as well put your enormous Chilliwackian measuring device away Slyts it's not in the cards this winter.

[Typeing3]

It’s going to rain tomorrow. It likely won’t flood. But, I still think that is pretty darn cool.

Fixed!

[WeatherPro]

Welcome back to another winter!

Snow Incoming!

The first snowfall of the season is upon you! It is always most exciting when the first snow chances arrive.
As with all first snowfalls, this will be marginal and hard to predict. Here are some notes and predictions:

Ground is still warm, several c above freezing. This will hinder any snow sticking as it will melt very fast. You will need heavy precipitation rates to help build any snow accumulations at this time. It is possible as it looks like heavy rain/snow will at least occur Saturday afternoon.

Wetbulb. You need this for tomorrow. Looks like DP is at freezing already so this looks good if it hangs on.

Higher elevations WILL see snow. All the usual higher elevations: Burnaby/Vancouver/Surrey/Coquitlam/Langley/Valley.

Lower elevations is marginal, but IS possible tomorrow. Although you may not get accumulations, you should actually see wet snow down to sea level. If it does stick, then consider that a really nice bonus. These areas: Richmond/Delta/Ladner/Port Coquitlam/Pitt Meadows

Amounts: Higher elevations will see between 3 - 6cm. Burnaby Mountain may see up to 8 - 10cm
Lower Elevations: 1 - 3cm (Sea level)
Fraser Valley: 5 - 7cm

Partial clear skies over night tonight into Saturday morning will help lock in some lower temps. Rain starting early in the morning or snow flurries over high ground changing to periods of rain/snow in the afternoon. Snow over higher ground. Northern sections of the LM will have the advantage. Overnight Saturday into Sunday the temp will slowly rise. Probably change to rain/showers Sunday. Higher elevations may hang on a bit longer.

This is what it looks like according to models and area climatology. Being the first setup for snow, this will be another marginal event, and could easily bust for snow. However I think no matter what, you will all see snow falling at some point tomorrow regardless if it sticks to the ground.


Enjoy!

[SouthSardiswx]

Welcome back to another winter!

Snow Incoming!

The first snowfall of the season is upon you! It is always most exciting when the first snow chances arrive.
As with all first snowfalls, this will be marginal and hard to predict. Here are some notes and predictions:

Ground is still warm, several c above freezing. This will hinder any snow sticking as it will melt very fast. You will need heavy precipitation rates to help build any snow accumulations at this time. It is possible as it looks like heavy rain/snow will at least occur Saturday afternoon.

Wetbulb. You need this for tomorrow. Looks like DP is at freezing already so this looks good if it hangs on.

Higher elevations WILL see snow. All the usual higher elevations: Burnaby/Vancouver/Surrey/Coquitlam/Langley/Valley.

Lower elevations is marginal, but IS possible tomorrow. Although you may not get accumulations, you should actually see wet snow down to sea level. If it does stick, then consider that a really nice bonus. These areas: Richmond/Delta/Ladner/Port Coquitlam/Pitt Meadows

Amounts: Higher elevations will see between 3 - 6cm. Burnaby Mountain may see up to 8 - 10cm
Lower Elevations: 1 - 3cm (Sea level)
Fraser Valley: 5 - 7cm

Partial clear skies over night tonight into Saturday morning will help lock in some lower temps. Rain starting early in the morning or snow flurries over high ground changing to periods of rain/snow in the afternoon. Snow over higher ground. Northern sections of the LM will have the advantage. Overnight Saturday into Sunday the temp will slowly rise. Probably change to rain/showers Sunday. Higher elevations may hang on a bit longer.

This is what it looks like according to models and area climatology. Being the first setup for snow, this will be another marginal event, and could easily bust for snow. However I think no matter what, you will all see snow falling at some point tomorrow regardless if it sticks to the ground.


Enjoy!

Thanks Wpro great to see you back, this winter looks bleak with El Nino but nice to at least have a chance. Happy holidays pal.

[WeatherPro]

Thank you.
Yes, this winter does look less snowy due to the El Nino, it's unfortunate. You should see a few chances though, they just might be few and far between. The worrisome part is the lack of snow on the local mountains for this coming spring/summer. Hopefully they will at least get some at some point. Most likely at the end of the season.

[Forrest Gump]

Not much excitement on the forum l guess the reality of a dudster winter has set in. You may as well put your enormous Chilliwackian measuring device away Slyts it's not in the cards this winter.

The Over the Hill Heavyweight title could be on the line tomorrow, El Nino says it could be just a best of one no holds barred and no measuring devices banned cage match . There's snow way I'm goin down without a fight. May the best old fart win.

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

00Z Euro.

ecmwf-deterministic-vancouverski-snow_24hr_kuchera_cm-2198800.png

[Rubus_Leucodermis]

UW WRF-GFS.

wa_snow24.36.0000.gif

[AbbyJr]

Just noticed that 1953/54 was a weak borderline moderate El Niño. Well, January 1954 featured nearly two weeks of top tier cold and snow.

Oops, I forgot those were the good old days when January performed. Darn.