November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

[Catnip]

A foot of rain in Oregon from Friday am to Tuesday afternoon. Wow.

Like Nito mentioned, AR are sometimes unpredictable and can shift North/South. Someone is going to get nailed with lots of

euro 156.png

euro water.png

[Catnip]

The coast of OR is ground zero on this Euro run.

euro 240.png

[wetcoast91]

The coast of OR is ground zero on this Euro run.



euro 240.png

Zero snowpack to absorb it too. It's just pure run off.

Expecting lots of flooding and landslides.

[AbbyJr]

A foot of rain in Oregon from Friday am to Tuesday afternoon. Wow.

Like Nito mentioned, AR are sometimes unpredictable and can shift North/South. Someone is going to get nailed with lots of

euro 156.png
euro water.png

Yup. But it's way too soon to know the exact placement of the AR. We will have a much better idea once the event gets in the 84 hour range.

[Weather101]

Yup. But it's way too soon to know the exact placement of the AR. We will have a much better idea once the event gets in the 84 hour range.

He's literally just posting what the maps show man.. no one said it was a slam dunk.

Either way someone is going to see a LOT of rain which " can" turn out to be bad. We will see.

[Weather101]

Zero snowpack to absorb it too. It's just pure run off.

Expecting lots of flooding and landslides.

[Hound]

Oh! Oh! I hope the dykes on the Sumas prarie can hold up although the Vedder River looks like August levels.
So it should be no problem and as one member pointed out no snow in the alpine to contend with.

Ya, I'm surprised how low the river is. My boss goes fishing out there almost every week and said it's way low as well. Better than flooding though?

[AbbyJr]

He's literally just posting what the maps show man.. no one said it was a slam dunk.

Either way someone is going to see a LOT of rain which " can" turn out to be bad. We will see.

I know that... I was agreeing with the post. That is, that AR's can shift north and south. We don't know the exact details yet.

[AbbyJr]

Pure fantasy with probably less than a 1% chance of verifying but Euro member 47 slams a hurricane into SW Vancouver Island.
Shows a max wind gust of 139 km/h in Abbotsford on December 7th. October 1962 anyone?

ecmwf-ensemble-CYXX-indiv_gust-1259200.png

xx_model-en-196-0_modez_2023112912_192_5618_149_m47.png

[tyweather]

It was colder this morning in Vancouver (-3.1) and Abbotsford (-4.5) than it was in Revelstoke (-2.4). I don't think that this happens often in the winter.

[Weather101]

I know that... I was agreeing with the post. That is, that AR's can shift north and south. We don't know the exact details yet.

Hard to tell with your undertones a lot of the times but yes I agree

[Weather101]

Pure fantasy with probably less than a 1% chance of verifying but Euro member 47 slams a hurricane into SW Vancouver Island.
Shows a max wind gust of 139 km/h in Abbotsford on December 7th. October 1962 anyone?


ecmwf-ensemble-CYXX-indiv_gust-1259200.png

xx_model-en-196-0_modez_2023112912_192_5618_149_m47.png

Sheesh that would be wild

[tyweather]

Last year was the commute from when hell freezes over day. Thankfully I got to experience that from home. Here is what it looked like from there.

[Catnip]

18Z GFS

1st round takes aim at OR on Sunday:

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Then the next round takes aim at Southern BC Monday night/Tuesday, with that SW flow that Neetz mentioned earlier. Extreme rainfall rates.

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[Catnip]

+ =

SN.png

and then

SN2.png