November 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

[Hawk]

GFS has some XL pineapples showing up on Dec 12

[wetcoast91]

GFS has some XL pineapples showing up on Dec 12

Looks like either ridging or XL pineapples.

[SouthSardiswx]

Score! l wish it's as close to white we'll see this winter @ the pond in south Sardis.

20231129_071458.jpg

[stuffradio]

GFS has some XL pineapples showing up on Dec 12

Crazy

gfs_apcpn_nwus_64.png

[SouthSardiswx]

Crazy

gfs_apcpn_nwus_64.png

Oh! Oh! I hope the dykes on the Sumas prarie can hold up although the Vedder River looks like August levels.
So it should be no problem and as one member pointed out no snow in the alpine to contend with.

[Typeing3]

00z GFS ensembles:

ens_image.png

00z ECMWF ensembles:

ens_image (1).png

00z GEM ensembles:

ens_image (2).png

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20231129143223-abd7b21678dba5e089e7a0062bb7ce8584996b4e.png

20231129143152-3225402636202e9fcd8023ab536943db28bcce0c.png

[SouthSardiswx]

We reached a low of -3c @ the pond in south Sardis this morning once again only some patchy fog from Abbs to Chilliwack.

[SouthSardiswx]

Not good at alot of ski hills in B.C.this is absolutely terrible but we all knew but hoped not.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british- ... -1.7043016

[tyweather]

Not good at alot of ski hills in B.C.this is absolutely terrible but we all knew but hoped not.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british- ... -1.7043016

Sounds like my ski mountains somewhat near Vanderhoof aren't doing so well either. Less than 1 month to when I go.

[Catnip]

Clear and frosty this morning with an overnight low of -2.5c, coldest of this stretch I believe.

[Catnip]

The 6z GEFS continues the idea of bringing the coldest air into the Yukon and BC as we get into mid December.

6z GEFS wants to shift the blocking Eastward as well.

Yes, I know...

But something to monitor for now at least.

Cold outbreaks can/have followed AR events in the past.

GEFS 500 300h.png

gefs 500.png

gefs.png

[Catnip]

Control runs are fantasy runs, imo, but here is the EPS from last night.

EPS control.png

[Catnip]

Non control EPS has a similar idea as the GEFS in regards to the placement of the colder air.

eps.png

[Catnip]

Some impressive rainfall totals to our South/OR on last nights Euro.

euro.png

euro OR.png

[wetcoast91]

Some impressive rainfall totals to our South/OR on last nights Euro.

euro.png

euro OR.png

Next Mon to Wed is a timeframe to watch for the South Coast with that AR. Some runs want to pivot the flow to a more SSW orientation. This would really put the Howe Sound/Whistler region in a bullseye. Very high freezing levels would cause a lot of snow melt at the high alpines before this arrives.