October 2023 Forecasts And Discussions

[Typeing3]

Similar to the early December 2016 cold snap?

I'd say more akin to the early December 2013 cold snap, except more anomalous and longer in duration.

The early December 2016 cold snap had a lot more snow involved... initially going into the first week, then dry, followed by snow again during the reload into the second week, then dry again, followed by more snow at the end of the second week into the early portion of the third week.

[Typeing3]

Agreed.

I’m thinking October is fairly dry but we get some rain here and there, especially towards the end of the month.

As for November, I think theres a sold chance we end up either near or slightly above average for rainfall. Could see a big windstorm. For some reason, I’m feeling one is coming but that could just be my biased opinion because I personally love wind events. But we haven’t seen a big windstorm since December 2018 so it wouldn’t surprise me to see at least one during the month.

Moving into December, I think there is good potential for an early to mid month cold snap. Probably ends up back door but could be a direct blast from the north. It’s impossible to say at this point but just staying conservative for now.

January and February will probably end up being split between warm and wet and mild and dry.

Unfortunately, I don’t expect the January curse to be broken this winter.

Overall, I think the -PDO/-QBO will save us from a fall and winter failure. My guess is that we see a taste of typical El Niño conditions with some La Niña mixed in. That said, I’m excited for the upcoming season.

Early January can also be favoured time for cold snaps during an El Nino winter... see January 1973 or 1998.

Mid January onwards on the other hand is almost always a complete write off, however.

[SouthSardiswx]

Early January can also be favoured time for cold snaps during an El Nino winter... see January 1973 or 1998.

Mid January onwards on the other hand is almost always a complete write off, however.

1998 l remember as well the January cold snap ended with just your average 10cm snowfall l was living in Port Coquitlam back then.
Was that the winter with the December 97 snowfall just afew day's before Christmas we talked about in the pastTdude?

[Typeing3]

1998 l remember as well the January cold snap ended with just your average 10cm snowfall l was living in Port Coquitlam back then.
Was that the winter with the December 97 snowfall just afew day's before Christmas we talk about Tdude?

Nope, that was December 1998!

[SouthSardiswx]

Nope, that was December 1998!

Ah o.k. it's so easy without looking it up to get it wrong but l try.
Yeah December 98 that featured an impressive Arctic outbreak before that snowfall on the 23rd it started late in the afternoon into morning of the 24th.
It's currently 12c @ the official pond in south Sardis.

[stuffradio]

The latest CFSv2 Monthly for November is now showing above normal precipitation but still warmer than normal.

[SouthSardiswx]

The latest CFSv2 Monthly for November is now showing above normal precipitation but still warmer than normal.

Thank you oh great Stuffybear can l remove the anti freeze from my swimming pond. like l mentioned afew day's ago l've seen like 10 different winter outlooks pin the tail on the predictions l guess.

[stuffradio]

Thank you oh great Stuffybear can l remove the anti freeze from my swimming pond. like l mentioned afew day's ago l've seen like 10 different winter outlooks pin the tail on the predictions l guess.

Yes like you said, I've seen some of the people I consider to be more "experts" in long range forecasting starting to paint the picture that a cold East coast in December is not a slam dunk. It's quite possible that despite this being an El Nino, we will have a cold December. From what I understand though is that we would either have a cold dry December or a warm and wet December. Maybe we can have different periods where the wet/cold intersects? At this point I would say given our ENSO state a front-loaded winter is more likely. I've seen forecasts suggesting the Nino peaks in early 2024 (January or February) and gradually declines into the mid next year.

[Typeing3]

Environment Canada has slowly began releasing the 1991-2020 climate normals & averages data: https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_n ... rovince=BC

[SouthSardiswx]

We reached a comfortable 23c @ the pond in south Sardis today.
"Happy Thanksgiving" to all my forum friends.

[AbbyJr]

Early January can also be favoured time for cold snaps during an El Nino winter... see January 1973 or 1998.

Mid January onwards on the other hand is almost always a complete write off, however.

While these are outliers, 1954 and 1969 will beg to differ on mid January.

[SouthSardiswx]

Anyone feel this last evening l didn't at my work in Abbs down near Sumas.

Screenshot_20231009_052610_MyRadar.jpg

[stuffradio]

Happy thanksgiving day! I did hear about that earthquake but I didn’t feel it.

[stuffradio]

It looks like the extent of the heat for next month is starting to shrink dramatically on the latest monthly forecasts. Also is it possible we'll be in a neutral ENSO by middle 2024?

nino34Sea.png

CFSv2.NaT2m.20231009.202311.gif

[Hawk]

It looks like the extent of the heat for next month is starting to shrink dramatically on the latest monthly forecasts. Also is it possible we'll be in a neutral ENSO by middle 2024?

nino34Sea.png
CFSv2.NaT2m.20231009.202311.gif

And maybe another Nina by next winter?