August 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

[PortKells]

Hopefully this is a direct hit on the hot spots.

rgem_apcpn_nwus_66.png

[Weather101]

[SouthSardiswx]

Rapidly dropping temperatures with the arctic front and 12 hours of heavy snow. November 26th, 2006 repeat on December 25th 2023.

Lock it in.

O.k.it's locked in Jr. Man.

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[Mattman]

I was rummaging through old photos and found this picture taken by a family friend circa 1986. I had forgotten I had this. Our family and family friends drove to the summit of Blue Grouse Mountain. I found a beer bottle and was being a clown with it so my dad took a picture, and the family friend took a picture of both of us. (If the clothes make you dry heave, that’s okay. It was the 80's after all). This picture is facing SE towards Kelowna. Right across the lake right above the lake is Clifton Rd. That’s close to where the fire first jumped the lake. Although there were homes there then, it’s now heavily subdivided. Way in the background is Black Knight Mountain. It’s now heavily subdivided to with large cherry orchards. If there’s to be a large forest fire threatening Kelowna again, the remaining range is Black Knight Mountain. I would be surprised if all of Blue Grouse wasn’t torched in this fire since at the base is Bear Creek and Trader’s Cove. The wind last Thursday was favourable for driving it up the mountain.

Also found this picture of Blue Grouse from 1952. It’s taken approximately from where The Sails are now in Kelowna looking NW. I had no idea there was a fire there in ‘52. You can see the lake looks choppy from the wind. I wonder if that was the last close forest fire in the central Okanagan until those 11-year-old boys accidentally torched the north side of Boucherie 30 years later.

[PortKells]

ecmwf_apcpn_nwus_21.png

[Typeing3]

Pretty nutty to think about regarding the wildfire season this year but it seems as though history is repeating itself on a grander scale this time around. Record area burned but about half of the total area burned has been from just one fire -- in northeast BC which began all the way back in May and continues to burn at present.

In 1958 (another infamous wildfire season -- see video links below), we also saw a large chunk of the total area burned that year from just one fire -- also in northeast BC which also began in early May and continued burning until late September. With more accurate technology today in analyzing/measuring fire, especially in the hinterland, it's certainly within the realm of possibility that the fire back then may have also been more impactful than what was recorded.

https://youtu.be/h0fZP1ciuqU
https://youtu.be/hZzr4sDgujQ

[Typeing3]

00z GFS ensembles:

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00z ECMWF ensembles:

ens_image (10).png

00z GEM ensembles:

ens_image (11).png

[Typeing3]

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[AbbyJr]

O.k.it's locked in Jr. Man.
9260534683982800061.jpeg

How much are tickets to experience the 1968/69 winter?

Edit: Tickets are all sold out with the exception of the nosebleed seasons. Anyone want free tickets for the 2015/16 winter?

[Typeing3]

How much are tickets to experience the 1968/69 winter?

Edit: Tickets are all sold out with the exception of the nosebleed seasons. Anyone want free tickets for the 2015/16 winter?

Winter 2015-16 =

[AbbyJr]

Winter 2015-16 =

January 2011 just came available. I've got free tickets to that season as well. Who wants to see a third period collapse?

[PortKells]

Oh god the Euro is an absolute disaster puts us back in the oven for the start of September after the briefest of ULLs zips through.

Edit: Its the GFS I was looking at. Phew. Still not a great sign though.

[Weather101]

This is messed up

[stuffradio]

Some agreement on rain, disagreement on timing and amounts. 15-25mm would be a nice way to end meteorological Summer haha.

2023082212_054@007_E1_yxx_I_NAEFS@EPSGRAMS_tt@surf@nt@pr@ws@surf_360.png

[Weather101]

Some agreement on rain, disagreement on timing and amounts. 15-25mm would be a nice way to end meteorological Summer haha.

2023082212_054@007_E1_yxx_I_NAEFS@EPSGRAMS_tt@surf@nt@pr@ws@surf_360.png

Yes