August 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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Rubus_Leucodermis
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Re: August 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

Rubus_Leucodermis wrote: Sun Aug 20, 2023 8:46 am 🔥☁️ is staying overhead for the most part. It is now very thick and this morning is effectively overcast due to it. AQI at the surface is only moderate. It smelled worse of smoke at midnight than it does now.
Spoke too soon. Nasty stuff is starting to mix down out there.
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Re: August 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

00z GFS ensembles:
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00z ECMWF ensembles:
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00z GEM ensembles:
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Re: August 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

20230820163233-79d7fd9ccebfb6a3093d4f46ad6fd0b0222daa30.png
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Re: August 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

Another heat wave. :thumbdown:
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Re: August 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

Bonovox wrote: Sun Aug 20, 2023 9:39 am Another heat wave. :thumbdown:
I don't know if that will exceed 32 C for 3 days or whatever the minimum level required to call it a heat wave, but yeah it looks toasty for a decent stretch. You have to imagine that will be accompanied by more smoke too without much onshore push.
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Re: August 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

PortKells wrote: Sun Aug 20, 2023 9:57 am I don't know if that will exceed 32 C for 3 days or whatever the minimum level required to call it a heat wave, but yeah it looks toasty for a decent stretch. You have to imagine that will be accompanied by more smoke too without much onshore push.
I know it might not meet the official criteria, but it is a heatwave in my books. :|
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Re: August 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Monty »

Deciduous trees mixed into a forest canopy to slow a fire down. It’s a proven fact and there are deciduous trees that grow in far more severe climates than our interior valleys. I’m not saying it’s a fool proof solution but it’s something to consider.
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Re: August 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Bonovox wrote: Sun Aug 20, 2023 10:03 am I know it might not meet the official criteria, but it is a heatwave in my books. :|
What would be your heatwave criteria?
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Re: August 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

Bonovox wrote: Sun Aug 20, 2023 10:03 am I know it might not meet the official criteria, but it is a heatwave in my books. :|
I'll go by your books, its a heatwave if its hot outside.
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Re: August 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

AbbyJr wrote: Sun Aug 20, 2023 10:23 am What would be your heatwave criteria?
Anything over 25c.

Personally I recoil at anything over 20c.
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Re: August 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Bonovox wrote: Sun Aug 20, 2023 10:45 am Anything over 25c.

Personally I recoil at anything over 20c.
My heatwave criteria would be 28C or higher for at least 3 consecutive days.
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Re: August 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

AbbyJr wrote: Sun Aug 20, 2023 10:52 am My heatwave criteria would be 28C or higher for at least 3 consecutive days.
I'd say 32c+(90f+) for at least three days or 35c+(95f+) for at least two days.
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Re: August 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

:sick:
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Re: August 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Bonovox »

Barf. :sick:
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Re: August 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by wetcoast91 »

Monty wrote: Sun Aug 20, 2023 10:03 am Deciduous trees mixed into a forest canopy to slow a fire down. It’s a proven fact and there are deciduous trees that grow in far more severe climates than our interior valleys. I’m not saying it’s a fool proof solution but it’s something to consider.
Can be done in some areas that are vulnerable...but deciduous trees, including Aspens need a lot of water the first 2 growing seasons. It would have to be manually done in very remote areas and be a very expensive undertaking.

Something to consider would be moving orchards up the hills and bringing irrigation systems up to the higher levels and developing slightly above the valley floor? The orchards are usually have a humid microclimate with all the ground level moisture and could serve as a green buffer zone.

The goal should be at limiting migration. We keep bringing people in with no real plan and the end result is the population dispersing into rural or remote areas seeking a quality of life that's quickly eroding. This is happening way too rapidly.
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