August 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

[Canada Goose]

Saskatchewan or Manitoba?

SK.

[wetcoast91]

Models earlier in the week were showing a cool down to the low 20s starting Friday onwards.

Then it became a cool down to the mid-upper 20s.

Now...spitting out solutions that could bring mid to upper 30s.

Go figure.

Models trying to form another Rex block along the coast next week. Strong ridge centered along the BC coast and a near stationary upper low off of the US west coast. That pattern could bring some warm moist air northward with potential thunderstorms in southern BC. But if the ridge is stronger and the ULL is suppressed more south it could bring another spell of hot and dry weather to much of the province.

I'll bet my house and 1 of my kids on the warmest outcome.

[Weather101]

Models earlier in the week were showing a cool down to the low 20s starting Friday onwards.

Then it became a cool down to the mid-upper 20s.

Now...spitting out solutions that could bring mid to upper 30s.

Go figure.



I'll bet my house and 1 of my kids on the warmest outcome.

Why just one of the kids? Go all in! Throw in the wife as well!!

Warmer is most likely

[Bonovox]

Models earlier in the week were showing a cool down to the low 20s starting Friday onwards.

Then it became a cool down to the mid-upper 20s.

Now...spitting out solutions that could bring mid to upper 30s.

Go figure.



I'll bet my house and 1 of my kids on the warmest outcome.

Can I throw in a couple of my kids too?

[stuffradio]

Can I throw in a couple of my kids too?

How many kids will you win if the bet pays off? 10? 15?

[Bonovox]

How many kids will you win if the bet pays off? 10? 15?

Whoa whoa whoa, I didn’t know I had to take on anymore kids. Bets off!

[Catnip]

Models earlier in the week were showing a cool down to the low 20s starting Friday onwards.

Then it became a cool down to the mid-upper 20s.

Now...spitting out solutions that could bring mid to upper 30s.

Go figure.



I'll bet my house and 1 of my kids on the warmest outcome.

The warmest outcome usually wins out Neetz!

[AbbyJr]

Models trying to form another Rex block along the coast next week. Strong ridge centered along the BC coast and a near stationary upper low off of the US west coast. That pattern could bring some warm moist air northward with potential thunderstorms in southern BC. But if the ridge is stronger and the ULL is suppressed more south it could bring another spell of hot and dry weather to much of the province.

Hence the reason some of the members on the Euro ensembles are showing another heatwave while others are much cooler solutions.

Much uncertainty in the mid to long range.

ecmwf-ensemble-CYXX-indiv_tmp-2187200.png

[PortKells]

We're already in the worst fire season on record (not a very long record I know) and it feels like things are about to flare up badly. I'm in Kelowna next week so I'm partially hoping to see some thunder but dry lightning wouldn't be a good thing at all.

[AbbyJr]

Really weird pattern shift modelled. We are potentially going from humid heat to dry heat in a very short period of time. But heat is heat.

Looks like Thursday is the last hot and humid day. Friday much cooler with the low 20's and low humidity. Saturday and Sunday look hot and dry with very low dew points. Unfortunately, fire danger will likely significantly increase in the coming days. At least it's mid August.

Smoke may be a concern this upcoming weekend as the surface flow turns offshore. But we all knew the smoke would eventually come, right?

[Weather101]

We're already in the worst fire season on record (not a very long record I know) and it feels like things are about to flare up badly. I'm in Kelowna next week so I'm partially hoping to see some thunder but dry lightning wouldn't be a good thing at all.

We really don't need a hot end of the summer...

[Coquitlam79]

We're already in the worst fire season on record (not a very long record I know) and it feels like things are about to flare up badly. I'm in Kelowna next week so I'm partially hoping to see some thunder but dry lightning wouldn't be a good thing at all.

Already a fire near Keremeos that actually was 2 fires that merged and grew massively today. Campers are stranded and evacuation alerts in place. What could be problematic is if we get some if that instability and moisture are coming up from the south next week as some models are showing. Would likely mean some lightning.

[Coquitlam79]

We really don't need a hot end of the summer...

I was really expecting that this year would follow 2010, 2015 and 2004 and we would see some decent rain in the second half of August. Apparently not. But there's always September. I think we'll see a wet September. At some point it has to change.

[Typeing3]

High of 33.5c for the third straight day in east Coquitlam.

[AbbyJr]

My high today was 33.7C. Daily highs here have been unusually stable during this heatwave.

August 13th: 33.8C
August 14th: 33.7C
August 15th: 33.5C
August 16th: 33.7C

Daily change has only been within decimal points, which is rather unusual. During most heatwaves, there is usually at least a degree difference on the some of the days. That said, I think tomorrow will be lower by a few degrees. Might hit 30C but it will likely be hit or miss.