August 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Weather reports, analysis etc. pertaining to Southern BC.
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PortKells
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Re: August 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

Weather101 wrote: Fri Aug 11, 2023 9:22 am:think:
Lmao. Wishful thinking. If people in pheonix Arizona have green grass, the entitled folks here will have their green grass.

My family has a cabin on a small island near sechelt that is even more arid, it’s crazy dry. Our rich neighbours were so desperate for green lawn that they put a well on a public road and are now depleting the aquifer for their golf green grass that doesn’t fit the vibe at all. Another cabin had their sprinkler blasting mid day on already shiny green grass. Every surrounding neighbour had crispy yellow hay looking stuff.

The entitlement of these people goes beyond anything you or I could fathom. And you can only imagine the arguments, aka “it rains all winter and you’re telling me I can’t water my lawn??” “I pay taxes!!”
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Re: August 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Typeing3 »

Weather101 wrote: Fri Aug 11, 2023 9:22 am:think:
Nothing really new, as our dry summer climate usually ensure unwatered grass is brown/yellow for extended periods of time during an average summer. Not too much of an issue as it typically just goes dormant and doesn't die off.
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Re: August 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by stuffradio »

There are systems that exist that water the lawn with the water from running the taps in the house. It's a way to recycle the water and have your green grass.

The 12Z eps has definitely moderated. No signs of 35C on it.
2023081112_054@007_E1_yxx_I_NAEFS@EPSGRAMS_tt@surf@nt@pr@ws@surf_360.png
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Re: August 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Abby_wx »

Typeing3 wrote: Fri Aug 11, 2023 12:15 pm Nothing really new, as our dry summer climate usually ensure unwatered grass is brown/yellow for extended periods of time during an average summer. Not too much of an issue as it typically just goes dormant and doesn't die off.
My grass actually completely died the last two summers. Never had that happen before. Had to reseed to get anything to grow. It's already dead/dormant again, so I don't know why I bothered. :lol:

Most people out here seem to be letting their lawns turn brown. It is harder to keep a green lawn out here compared to more coastal areas, though.
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Re: August 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Glacier »

PortKells wrote: Fri Aug 11, 2023 11:28 am Lmao. Wishful thinking. If people in pheonix Arizona have green grass, the entitled folks here will have their green grass.

My family has a cabin on a small island near sechelt that is even more arid, it’s crazy dry. Our rich neighbours were so desperate for green lawn that they put a well on a public road and are now depleting the aquifer for their golf green grass that doesn’t fit the vibe at all. Another cabin had their sprinkler blasting mid day on already shiny green grass. Every surrounding neighbour had crispy yellow hay looking stuff.

The entitlement of these people goes beyond anything you or I could fathom. And you can only imagine the arguments, aka “it rains all winter and you’re telling me I can’t water my lawn??” “I pay taxes!!”
If you water the water goes back into the ground and back into the aquifer.

I know, it's not quite that simple as you lose some to evaporation. If you're on an island water conservative is certainly important. Here in the Okanagan we get 400mm per year in the watershed. Farming uses 11mm and houses use 2 mm. We could use up to 122mm without harming the aquifers and creeks. Every watershed is different. Gulf islands for example don't have so much available.
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Re: August 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Models have backed off again on the the extent of the heat. This sure has been a challenging one for the models to resolve. :thumbup: :think:

ecmwf-deterministic-CYXX-daily_tmin_tmax-1755200.png
gem-all-CYXX-daily_tmin_tmax-1755200.png
gfs-deterministic-CYXX-daily_tmin_tmax-1755200.png
nbm-CYXX-daily_tmin_tmax-1776800.png
ndfd-CYXX-daily_tmin_tmax-1784000.png
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Last edited by AbbyJr on Fri Aug 11, 2023 1:33 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: August 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Abby_wx »

stuffradio wrote: Fri Aug 11, 2023 12:47 pm There are systems that exist that water the lawn with the water from running the taps in the house. It's a way to recycle the water and have your green grass.

The 12Z eps has definitely moderated. No signs of 35C on it.

2023081112_054@007_E1_yxx_I_NAEFS@EPSGRAMS_tt@surf@nt@pr@ws@surf_360.png
I'd be surprised if we only saw upper 20's at YXX like that chart is suggesting. It is a difficult forecast, but I'm leaning towards low 30's being a lock at this point. Mid 30's is still possible, but obviously far from certain.
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Re: August 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Agreed. The GEM and NDFD look reasonable to me. I added the latest NDFD to my previous post. :thumbup:
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Re: August 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Rubus_Leucodermis »

Abby_wx wrote: Fri Aug 11, 2023 1:13 pm I'd be surprised if we only saw upper 20's at YXX like that chart is suggesting. It is a difficult forecast, but I'm leaning towards low 30's being a lock at this point. Mid 30's is still possible, but obviously far from certain.
Me too. Abby is far enough inland that breaking the 30°C barrier in the coming week seems basically a lock at this point.

Heck, I’m expecting East Van to have at least one 30+ day.
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Re: August 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

Glacier wrote: Fri Aug 11, 2023 1:09 pm If you water the water goes back into the ground and back into the aquifer.

I know, it's not quite that simple as you lose some to evaporation. If you're on an island water conservative is certainly important. Here in the Okanagan we get 400mm per year in the watershed. Farming uses 11mm and houses use 2 mm. We could use up to 122mm without harming the aquifers and creeks. Every watershed is different. Gulf islands for example don't have so much available.
You’re right however it’s a sand island right next to the ocean. I’m pretty sure run off into the ocean would be somewhat significant. And messing with a sand island is a dumb idea anyways. The island is being eroded at an unsettling rate for numerous man made reasons.
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Re: August 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

AbbyJr wrote: Fri Aug 11, 2023 1:12 pm Models have backed off again on the the extent of the heat. This sure has been a challenging one for the models to resolve. :thumbup: :think:


ecmwf-deterministic-CYXX-daily_tmin_tmax-1755200.png


gem-all-CYXX-daily_tmin_tmax-1755200.png


gfs-deterministic-CYXX-daily_tmin_tmax-1755200.png


nbm-CYXX-daily_tmin_tmax-1776800.png


ndfd-CYXX-daily_tmin_tmax-1784000.png
Nice to see they have backed off. We have room to manouver. If it creeps up 2-3 degrees we’re still not pushing 40.
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Re: August 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Weather101 »

PortKells wrote: Fri Aug 11, 2023 11:28 am Lmao. Wishful thinking. If people in pheonix Arizona have green grass, the entitled folks here will have their green grass.

My family has a cabin on a small island near sechelt that is even more arid, it’s crazy dry. Our rich neighbours were so desperate for green lawn that they put a well on a public road and are now depleting the aquifer for their golf green grass that doesn’t fit the vibe at all. Another cabin had their sprinkler blasting mid day on already shiny green grass. Every surrounding neighbour had crispy yellow hay looking stuff.

The entitlement of these people goes beyond anything you or I could fathom. And you can only imagine the arguments, aka “it rains all winter and you’re telling me I can’t water my lawn??” “I pay taxes!!”
Can you imagine being that entitled over fricken grass??? GRASS!!

Like, who cares if it's green or not, but some people will do what they choose no matter what.
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Re: August 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by Weather101 »

Typeing3 wrote: Fri Aug 11, 2023 12:15 pm Nothing really new, as our dry summer climate usually ensure unwatered grass is brown/yellow for extended periods of time during an average summer. Not too much of an issue as it typically just goes dormant and doesn't die off.
Thankfully I don't have to worry about grass anymore lol
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Re: August 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by AbbyJr »

Title: Humidex? That's not what 40 feels like
Author: Tom Spears
Date: July 14th, 2017
Source: https://ottawasun.com/2017/07/14/humide ... feels-like
School’s out but the Science of Summer continues. Today, Postmedia’s Tom Spears looks at the wonky world of telling people that every summer day is hotter than the thermometer shows.

Thursday was a pleasant summer day in Windsor — 27 C and mostly sunny with a west wind. You’d think it would be the same in Detroit, just across the river.

Detroit’s temperature and humidity were almost exactly the same. But then came the human need to interpret.

In Detroit, the Weather Network reported a “feels like” equivalent of 30.5 C. But in Windsor, Environment Canada had a humidex of 38. They were telling the public that the weather felt 11 degrees hotter than the real temperature.

Once again, Canadians were being fed numbers that soared far above the real temperature, and far above what Americans are told about their weather in identical conditions.

Summer is a season when every sunny day we are told it feels hotter than it really is. If it’s 25 C, it feels like the low 30s. If it’s 32 C, it edges into the 40s.

You won’t find a sunny day in July or August where the weather forecast tells you it’s 27 C, and feels like 27 C.

Now, as TV and radio weather forecasters increasingly tell people the humidex instead of the temperature alone, it’s time to ask: how solid is this number?

First, the humidex is not issued in Celsius degrees. In proper usage, one can’t say the word “degrees” when discussing humidex. The humidex isn’t 30 Celsius, or 30 degrees, it’s just 30 with no further description — a point on a scale that is not in fact temperature.

But that distinction doesn’t always get through to people. When you hear that the temperature is 27 but the humidex is 38, your brain doesn’t beep out a little warning that these are two different units of measurement. It just thinks “hot.”

In fact, the humidex isn’t even a measurement. It’s a fairly arbitrary calculation where someone estimated that a certain amount of humidity makes heat more oppressive because the sweat just lies on your skin instead of evaporating and cooling you. And the underlying biology is true. Sticky air really is unpleasant.

But Ottawa residents are routinely told in summer’s hottest days that the humidex is 40 or more, even on days when people are cycling to work and playing tennis.

Forty? Really?

I asked my daughter, who has been living in dry, southern New Mexico since 2015, what days of 40 C and up are really like. The email answer came in a flash:

• bought gummy bears and by time got home 10 mins later all melted

• can’t touch steering wheel for first 5 mins in car bc burn fingers

• get out of pool and by time pick up towel you’re already dry

• ppl literally hang out at mall where best store is dollarama bc home air cons aren’t strong enough

• spf 60? Good for about 5 mins

• lip gloss in purse turns to liquid and leaks all over your purses

• you think the breeze will relieve things but just thrusts more hot air at you

• people literally fight over shade

• runners go at 6 am bc it’s over 30 degrees by 7am

• you’re relieved when it’s the low 40s.”

Not, then, quite what we see here.

Which brings us back to the vast difference between Canadian and U.S. indexes. If you combine temperature and humidity and multiply them by some factor to get a perceived heat, there is clearly some room for variation. Canadians and Americans don’t use the same formula.

Canada’s humidex has led to some values that even David Phillips of Environment Canada finds dubious. In July 2007, the temperature in Carman, Man., was 34 C. But the humidex hit 53.

“Well, that’s almost a 20-degree difference,” he said. That 53 in Carman is one degree from the generally accepted hottest temperature on the planet, which was in Death Valley (54 C).

“It just seems a little unreal.”

His native Windsor had a similar day in 1953: temperature 35 C, humidex 52.

And when the Toronto humidex hit 42 last summer, Phillips shook his head again. The only time Toronto passed 40 actual degrees, during three July days in 1936, 800 people across Ontario died.

And there’s a further glitch. When it’s 25 C but there’s a humidex of 32, are we saying it feels like a 32 C day with no humidity? Not much of a comparison, is it? Because (a) we never get 32 C and dry, so it’s a comparison with conditions that never happen here; and (b) hot and sticky will never feel anything like hot and dry. They are different. I’ve tramped around enough of the New Mexican desert to know.

Maybe some day a forecaster will say it’s 30 degrees, and this is what 30 degrees feels like in Ottawa.

That would be nice. In the meantime summer will end all too soon, and with it the humidex. And eventually December will be cold — but colder with the wind chill.
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Re: August 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

Post by PortKells »

Weather101 wrote: Fri Aug 11, 2023 4:12 pm Can you imagine being that entitled over fricken grass??? GRASS!!

Like, who cares if it's green or not, but some people will do what they choose no matter what.
It’s the most widespread and resilient plant on earth. It’s brilliant too it just goes dormant whenever it needs to. But no mines gotta be green because what will the neighbours say? I say grow veg gardens for the incoming food crisis but what do I know.

Definitely not the kind of grass I get all worked up about lol
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