August 2023 Forecasts and Discussions

[PortKells]

I mean..

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[PortKells]

The June 2011 850s looked like some of those higher members. I’ve got a feeling this won’t be fun.

[Coquitlam79]

The June 2011 850s looked like some of those higher members. I’ve got a feeling this won’t be fun.

I don't remember June 2011 but are you maybe referring to June 2021? I don't think we have to worry about that, looks like that typical hot spell we always get around the 2nd week of August for 2-4 days.

[AbbyJr]

I don't remember June 2011 but are you maybe referring to June 2021? I don't think we have to worry about that, looks like that typical hot spell we always get around the 2nd week of August for 2-4 days.

I'd be very surprised if we saw a repeat of June 2021 but some of the Euro ensemble members are showing temperatures in the upper 30's to low 40's. At the very least, I think we are looking at a significant heatwave. Still lots of time for the models to back off though. Time will tell.

ecmwf-ensemble-CYXX-indiv_tmp-0977600.png

[AbbyJr]

That heatwave is looking quite certain this far out. Some of the higher end members are unsettling.

Agreed.

My confidence in this potential heatwave is higher than usual for this far out. Still far from a lock but the model trends are looking very hot.

[SouthSardiswx]

A little something to cool us off a bit we reached a high of 29c @ the pond in south Sardis today.
https://snowbrains.com/farmers-almanac- ... ring-snow/

[SouthSardiswx]

I'd be very surprised if we saw a repeat of June 2021 but some of the Euro ensemble members are showing temperatures in the upper 30's to low 40's. At the very least, I think we are looking at a significant heatwave. Still lots of time for the models to back off though. Time will tell.


ecmwf-ensemble-CYXX-indiv_tmp-0977600.png

l remember that end of June 2011 event wasn't that mid to upper 30's? not quiet 40c but 10 years later almost to the date we would smash those temps.

[AbbyJr]

l remember that end of June 2011 event wasn't that mid to upper 30's? not quiet 40c but 10 years later almost to the date we would smash those temps.

I think PortKells was referring to the June 2021 event, but I could be wrong. Looking at 2011 in the stats, I don't see any major heat.

[PortKells]

I think PortKells was referring to the June 2021 event, but I could be wrong. Looking at 2011 in the stats, I don't see any major heat.

My bad yes I meant 2021.

Maybe an august 2021 repeat is more likely. model runs could start to show low 40’s more frequently as we get closer.

[Glacier]

That heatwave is looking quite certain this far out. Some of the higher end members are unsettling.

The Weather Network claims it will be -50 in the 15 day forecast!!

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[AbbyJr]

My bad yes I meant 2021.

Maybe an august 2021 repeat is more likely. model runs could start to show low 40’s more frequently as we get closer.

No problem.

It's always best to be conservative this far out. However, it is concerning to see so many ensemble members in the upper 30's to low 40's.

Time will tell but I've told a number of people that the June 2021 event was likely a once in a lifetime heatwave. If anything even close to it happens this summer, I'll have to offer my sincere apologies. Let's just hope the models back off and that we don't see any extreme heat.

That said, I do enjoy extreme weather for model riding and statistical purposes but the June 2021 heatwave was really hard to tolerate.

[tyweather]

The island is even getting in on that action

[SouthSardiswx]

The Weather Network claims it will be -50 in the 15 day forecast!!

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It’s now the A.I. network Glace. It's currently 22c @ the pond in south Sardis.

[John]

Agreed.

My confidence in this potential heatwave is higher than usual for this far out. Still far from a lock but the model trends are looking very hot.

Hope not hate heat

[John]

The island is even getting in on that action

Probably a mistake