November 2019 Forecasts and Discussions

[Forrest Gump]

Thanks. Where can you find these data?

Sounds like a wild goose chase

[Catnip]

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[Catnip]

A nice cool stretch anyways.

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[Typeing3]

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Fingers crossed the OP is leading the way in the long range.

[Hound]

Do those all fall as rain here in Vic?

Welcome aboard Esquimalt!
I bet Monty could give you a really good answer since he lives on the Island as well.

[Forrest Gump]

FWIW global news calling for flurries at higher elevations on Monday.

[Typeing3]

Nice eye candy in the long range. 00z showing a low of -10C for Vancouver on Dec 3rd. -13C in Abbotsford.

[Forrest Gump]

Frosty weather: Vancouver forecast calling for a chance of flurries next week

The Lower Mainland begins celebrating the holiday season early, and the Metro Vancouver weather forecast calls for some early winter conditions, too.

Environment Canada calls for sunshine and a high of 9°C on Thursday, Nov. 21, however, the evening is expected to drop down to a chilly 1°C. Following this, Friday is expected to see a mix of sun and cloud, with a 60% chance of showers in the evening.

Saturday through Tuesday call for a chance of rain each day, but a cold weather system is expected to move into the region Monday.


“Cold maritime air will be streaming down from Alaska on Monday,” explained Matt MacDonald, Meteorologist, Environment Canada.

“With that being said, we have a saying in the office: never trust a “northwesternly” flow. These patterns may change, but this one will bring cold air down into the Lower Mainland.”

MacDonald adds that Vancouver could see some flurries as a result, and that the mountain could see five to ten cm of snowfall. With this in mind, he adds that the weather pattern isn’t the same as the arctic air the region saw near the end of October.

“Some models are showing the system will spread down to northern California, but we will have to stay tuned to find out.”

Tuesday evening’s forecast currently calls for a low of 0°C and a chance of rain showers or flurries.

[Antares]

Also...looks like I dragged some American's up with me in my search, lol!

As per Canadian tradition, sorry about that

Yay, another North Van resident! Welcome back to the forum.

[AbbyJr]

Backdoor blast. Early December 2009. Note the 850mb temperatures on the bottom left...colder in eastern Washington and Oregon than here in SW BC. The size and tilt of the block favour a more E/NE flow over us. This is a setup which has repeated many times over recent years (ex. Dec 2013, Feb 2014 and Jan 2017) It's the best kind of pattern to maximize cold for those further south in Oregon or Eastern Washington but not for us.
reanal_2009120812.gif

True arctic blast. Mid/late December 1990. Note the more north/south orientation of the 850mb temps...the further south one goes, the warmer it gets. Also note the strong surface high situated in northern BC at the 1000mb level on the bottom right. This is when we can see those intense arctic fronts that can hit like a freight train with temps dropping 5-10C in just one hour with an intense period of heavy snow.
reanal_1990121900.gif

Excellent detailed response. Thanks so much.

[AbbyJr]

Backdoor blast. Early December 2009. Note the 850mb temperatures on the bottom left...colder in eastern Washington and Oregon than here in SW BC. The size and tilt of the block favour a more E/NE flow over us. This is a setup which has repeated many times over recent years (ex. Dec 2013, Feb 2014 and Jan 2017) It's the best kind of pattern to maximize cold for those further south in Oregon or Eastern Washington but not for us.
reanal_2009120812.gif

True arctic blast. Mid/late December 1990. Note the more north/south orientation of the 850mb temps...the further south one goes, the warmer it gets. Also note the strong surface high situated in northern BC at the 1000mb level on the bottom right. This is when we can see those intense arctic fronts that can hit like a freight train with temps dropping 5-10C in just one hour with an intense period of heavy snow.
reanal_1990121900.gif

November 2006 and December 2008 were also true arctic blasts right?

[John]

November 2006 and December 2008 were also true arctic blasts right?

NO!

[Typeing3]

November 2006 and December 2008 were also true arctic blasts right?

Yep. Both didn't quite have the same edge of those in the past, but still produced a "classic blast" setup. 850mb temps between -15C and -20C.

2006:

reanal_2006112812.gif

2008:

reanal_2008121912.gif

[John]

Yep. Both didn't quite have the same edge of those in the past, but still produced a "classic blast" setup. 850mb temps between -15C and -20C.

2006:
reanal_2006112812.gif

2008:
reanal_2008121912.gif

Ok

[Typeing3]

Ok

Those two events are really the best we've seen since the 90s.

Of course they weren't historically cold...Dec 1990 had 850s around -20C and Dec 1968 had 850mbs near -30C.